I've been using my NCAA Football Game (on Playstation 3) to simulate several football matchups and help me determine the best games to bet on. It's remarkable how accurate the available rosters are and I've made sure the depth charts are real and accurate as well. I thought it'd be an interesting 'experiment' to see how well the simulator does for the upcoming Duke games, so here's what the breakdown looks like for the coming home game at NC State.
After the stunning upset in Blacksburg, I've tweaked the rosters to more accurately reflect the current state of each team. (i.e. Duke's linebackers have been upgraded due to their performance this year)
As a result I feel we have the most accurate simulation to date. Duke began in Vegas as a nine point (-9) favorite but on one betting site it's already up to -10. 62% of all current public bets are on Duke to cover the spread. I may be biased... OR AM I? Let the numbers decide:
1. 27-24
2. 38-35
3. 0-28 W
4. 10-17 W
5. 10-25 W
6. 14-29 W
7. 24-9
8. 31-24
9. 17-31 W
10. 21-17
11. 10-35 W
12. 7-30 W
13. 14-28 W
14. 24-31 W
15. 11-21 W
16. 24-21
17. 14-42 W
18. 15-23 W
19. 0-24 W
20. 7-27 W
According to the simulations Duke wins 14 out of 20 or a 70% Winning Percentage for the Blue Devils. And the average score is 16-27 or Duke -11. The simulations predict Duke to cover even the ten point spread with -11. Looking at the Mode we have: NCSU 10 or 24 to Duke 24. The average yards for duke were as follows: 302 Passing Yards and 71 Rushing Yards.
It's clear the simulations believe that Boone will have no trouble throwing against the NCSU secondary. I've always thought the simulations didn't accurately reflect the realistic running yards for the Blue Devil's deep running backs. So I expect Duke to actually have at least 100ish running yards if not more.
Here's to hoping the simulations are on point this week and the wolfpack continue to 'rebuild.'
DUKE 27, NCSU 16
---Chip Slate
After the stunning upset in Blacksburg, I've tweaked the rosters to more accurately reflect the current state of each team. (i.e. Duke's linebackers have been upgraded due to their performance this year)
As a result I feel we have the most accurate simulation to date. Duke began in Vegas as a nine point (-9) favorite but on one betting site it's already up to -10. 62% of all current public bets are on Duke to cover the spread. I may be biased... OR AM I? Let the numbers decide:
1. 27-24
2. 38-35
3. 0-28 W
4. 10-17 W
5. 10-25 W
6. 14-29 W
7. 24-9
8. 31-24
9. 17-31 W
10. 21-17
11. 10-35 W
12. 7-30 W
13. 14-28 W
14. 24-31 W
15. 11-21 W
16. 24-21
17. 14-42 W
18. 15-23 W
19. 0-24 W
20. 7-27 W
According to the simulations Duke wins 14 out of 20 or a 70% Winning Percentage for the Blue Devils. And the average score is 16-27 or Duke -11. The simulations predict Duke to cover even the ten point spread with -11. Looking at the Mode we have: NCSU 10 or 24 to Duke 24. The average yards for duke were as follows: 302 Passing Yards and 71 Rushing Yards.
It's clear the simulations believe that Boone will have no trouble throwing against the NCSU secondary. I've always thought the simulations didn't accurately reflect the realistic running yards for the Blue Devil's deep running backs. So I expect Duke to actually have at least 100ish running yards if not more.
Here's to hoping the simulations are on point this week and the wolfpack continue to 'rebuild.'
DUKE 27, NCSU 16
---Chip Slate
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