I've been using my NCAA Football Game (on Playstation 3) to simulate several football matchups and help me determine the best games to bet on. It's remarkable how accurate the available rosters are and I've made sure the depth charts are real and accurate as well. I thought it'd be an interesting 'experiment' to see how well the simulator does for the upcoming Duke games, so here's what the breakdown looks like for the coming home game at NC State.

After the stunning upset in Blacksburg, I've tweaked the rosters to more accurately reflect the current state of each team. (i.e. Duke's linebackers have been upgraded due to their performance this year)

As a result I feel we have the most accurate simulation to date. Duke began in Vegas as a nine point (-9) favorite but on one betting site it's already up to -10. 62% of all current public bets are on Duke to cover the spread.  I may be biased... OR AM I? Let the numbers decide:

1. 27-24     

2. 38-35

3. 0-28     W

4. 10-17    W

5. 10-25    W

6. 14-29    W

7. 24-9  

8. 31-24

9. 17-31    W

10. 21-17

11. 10-35    W

12. 7-30    W

13. 14-28    W

14. 24-31    W

15. 11-21    W

16. 24-21

17. 14-42    W

18. 15-23    W

19. 0-24    W

20. 7-27    W

According to the simulations Duke wins 14 out of 20 or a 70% Winning Percentage for the Blue Devils. And the average score is 16-27 or Duke -11. The simulations predict Duke to cover even the ten point spread with -11. Looking at the Mode we have: NCSU 10 or 24     to    Duke 24. The average yards for duke were as follows:  302 Passing Yards and 71 Rushing Yards.

It's clear the simulations believe that Boone will have no trouble throwing against the NCSU secondary. I've always thought the simulations didn't accurately reflect the realistic running yards for the Blue Devil's deep running backs. So I expect Duke to actually have at least 100ish running yards if not more. 

Here's to hoping the simulations are on point this week and the wolfpack continue to 'rebuild.' 

DUKE 27, NCSU 16
---Chip Slate

Summer has arrived as evidenced by the 90 degree weather I am currently enjoying in Tidewater.  I woke up this morning and said to myself, “I need to write something for CrazieTalk.Net,” so I sat down at my keyboard with a cup of hot coffee, which quickly transitioned to a cold beer (hmm, several cold beers) and I knocked out the following rambling thoughts:

Starting with Lacrosse is a must due to Duke winning the National Championship this past Memorial Day Weekend.  Congratulations are in order to the Lacrosse team!  Most Valuable Player Brendan Foster was simply amazing as he dominated play at the X.

Lacrosse is a game I still do not fully understand, but it is extremely exciting so I've made a personal commitment to a) gain a clearer understanding of the rules and strategies, and b) take my grandson Zeke to a game next spring at Duke.  The play-offs this season were fantastic and by the time Duke had secured their second National Championship, with a 16-10 victory over the Syracuse Orange, I had chewed my fingernails to the point my cuticles were bleeding.  Ugh, disgusting...

Summertime means basketball recruiting is in full swing and Duke is currently pursuing a 2014 class that has the potential to be epic.  Shooting guard Grayson Allen has committed.  Allen is ranked number 39 by Scout.com and is purported to be an outstanding shooter with well above average athleticism.

Duke is pursuing and in great shape with center Jahlil Okafor and point guard Tyus Jones who Scout.com ranks as the number one and number two players respectively in their class.  Moreover, small forward Justise Winslow, the number nine ranked player is a top target.  Where this becomes really interesting is Okafor and Jones have long said they desire to attend the same college and in a recent interview Winslow communicated it would be great for all three to play together.  Wow!  Let it be Duke.

Winslow is from Houston, Texas a city which has been very kind to Duke in recent years providing us Rasheed Sulaimon and Matt Jones.  Some previous greater Houston area players include Daniel Ewing and for folks like myself who are a little long in the tooth – 1976 Olympic Gold Medalist Tate Armstrong.

These so called package deals rarely become reality as players end up heading off to the school which best meets their individual needs; however, Jones and Okafor have been consistently talking up playing together for quite a while and Duke is considered the favorite to land the duo.

Additionally, Duke is keeping a close watch on small forward Stanley Johnson, and power forwards Kevon Looney and Trey Lyles.  As I previously stated, 2014 could be an epic recruiting class for Coach Mike Krzyzewski and the Duke Blue Devils.  Nobody knows how it will play out, but following the process will be a lot of fun.

It must be time to discuss some football!

Just like the basketball staff, Coach Cutcliffe and crew are working hard recruiting 2014 players while simultaneously preparing for the 2013 season, which kicks-off at 4 pm on August 31 with the North Carolina Central University Eagles.

Eleven 2014 players have announced their verbal commitment to Duke including 4-Star (ESPN) linebacker Zavier Carmichael and 3-Star (Scout) athlete Johnathan Lloyd.  Lloyd was recruited by Duke to play quarterback.  Other notables are 3-Star (Scout) cornerback Alonzo Saxton and 3-Star (Scout) linebacker Tinashe Bere.

Duke is in hot pursuit of a multitude of recruits including: Kendall Joseph (linebacker), Avery Edwards (tight end), Josh Cabrera (wide receiver), Nico Pierre (quarterback), Harrison Phillips (defensive end) and many, many more.

Turning to this coming season, Duke will be looking to build off of last year’s Belk Bowl appearance.  Three year starting quarterback Sean Renfree and record setting wide receiver Conner Vernon are gone from the roster so the torch is passed to a new cadre of players to step into the limelight and continue the resurrection of Duke football.

Quarterback Anthony Boone, wide receiver Jamison Crowder and running backs Josh Snead and Jela Duncan are poised to be the offensive stars this coming year.  Another guy to keep your eye on is sophomore running back Shaquille Powell who turned in the single most impressive run from scrimmage in the Spring Game.

Moreover, multiple position player Brandon Connette is a guy who could explode in 2013.  Mostly underappreciated by Duke fans, Connette has scored 18 touchdowns in two seasons.

On defense, cornerback Ross Cockrell and defensive end Kenny Anunike will be the leaders.  However, the big story line has to be the return of injured players who missed all or most of last season due to injury.  Players such as Kelby Brown, Jamal Bruce and Corbin McCarthy will need to make an impact if Duke is going to improve on a defense that yielded over 440 yards and 36 points per game in 2012.

With no Florida State, Clemson or Stanford on the schedule, Duke has an opportunity to secure a winning season for the first time since 1994 and participate in back-to-back bowl games for the first time in school history.  It’ll come down to winning the games we are supposed to win and playing strong on the road.  Three very winnable games are road games: Memphis, Virginia and Wake Forest.

That’s all for now folks!  See you at Tailgate.

--Bob Green

So here we are, it’s the end of November and we are facing our last regular season opponent of the year. How fun is that to say? Not “our last opponent”, but our last REGULAR SEASON opponent! That’s right, boys and girls; Duke is going bowling this year. Where we are off to is a discussion for another day, and should be known by the end of this weekend, so let’s talk about the state of affairs that is the Duke football program as it now stands.

As fans, we have LOVED this season, culminating in the joy that was Jamison Crowder’s TD catch to beat the Tarheels and finally being able to ring the Victory Bell. Since that game though, Duke has faced tough times.  Two blowout losses to Florida State and Clemson dampened the mood a bit, and the tough loss to a Georgia Tech team that we couldn’t stop from moving the ball has put us in the throes of a 3 game losing streak. November has not been a kind month to the football team traditionally; Coach Cutcliffe has only one win under his belt, that was against UVA in 2010. He has often spoke of how November defines the season, and to a large extent that is true since it was the last month of play and the one we remember.

So does the current skid mean that Duke is back to its old ways? Not one bit. It is simply a sign that we still have lots of improvement left to work on, but to know we are bowling is the proof we are getting there. Look at the teams we lost to in our current streak.

·         Florida State…at Florida State. Sheesh…they are on a talent level that is astronomically different than our own. Unfortunately we picked the worst of days to play flatly as well; all aspects of our game were off that afternoon. But still, we did score, and forced 4 turnovers, so there’s that.

·         Clemson…at home. As with FSU, they are just on a different plane than the Blue Devils. There is a reason both teams are or have been in the top 10. Still, we put up 20, and once again forced turnovers. Hell, the only team that has beaten them this year is FSU!

·         Georgia Tech…wish we had played them in September before they fired Al Groh! But they took action and fixed their defensive woes. They play the option better than anyone in the country..hell even the camera guy can’t figure out where the ball is. And to top it off, they basically played a perfect game, and that’s hard for any team to do. It also makes it damn near impossible for another team to beat them. Still, we played a really great first half…we were in that game until late in the third quarter.

And now we have Miami. A team that is really much like Duke. On the field, they have more talent than we do, but they’ve proven they are vulnerable. We’ve proven we are pretty good at exploiting vulnerabilities. The question is, will we make them pay like we’ve done against Wake and UNC, or will we be unable to turn their problems into our points like we did against FSU and Clemson? We will find out soon enough.

Win or lose, Duke is on a better path. The future is here for our football team; all the effort that Ted Roof’s and Coach Cut’s recruits have put into improving what happens on the field is paying off. We are playing better, we are recruiting better, we are filling more of the stands. It’s pain and progress, but at least “progress” is now truly in the mix.

Let’s Go Duke!!!!
---Chris Wagner (CameronBornAndBred)

After being drubbed 48-7 by Florida State and 56-20 by Clemson in back-to-back games, I've read comments on various Duke message boards communicating a desire not to advance to the ACCCG in Charlotte on December 1st.  The basic attitude appears to be something along the lines of, "Why should we root for an outcome that will result in another drubbing at the hands of Florida State or Clemson?"

Pure poppycock!

Every Duke fan should be looking for a victory over Georgia Tech in order to set-up a Coastal Division Championship showdown with Miami on November 24 in Wallace Wade Stadium. 
Every Duke fan should relish the opportunity to beat Miami to get another chance at the Seminoles or Tigers. Who knows? We might actually beat them. Stranger things have happened in sports over the years.
It wouldn't bother me to face off against Florida State (or Clemson) in Charlotte and then have to face Stanford again in the Sun Bowl.  What's the worst possible outcome?  We lose!  Any Duke Football fan worth their salt isn't afraid of losing.

What's the best possible outcome?  We win and advance to the Orange Bowl in Miami. I like oranges.  With the appearance in the Orange Bowl (or the Sun Bowl), we grab the attention of some 4* and 5* recruits who can actually read and write that decide to commit to Duke, which improves the program.  Yes, the program.  The ACCCG and the Bowl Game are not solely about this year, they are about building the future of the program.
However, the ACCCG and Bowl Game are not solely about the future.  They are equally about this year.  How can any Duke fan deny Conner Vernon, Sean Renfree, Lee Butler, Desmond Scott, Brian Moore, Walt Canty or any of the other seniors the opportunity to head to Charlotte and experience playing in a Championship Game!
It's bye week and we need to rest, heal and prepare for the Yellow Jackets.

Go Duke! Beat Georgia Tech!  Go Duke!  Beat Miami!

--Bob Green