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Duke Vs. Gardner Webb Preview

12/15/2013

 
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After a nearly two week break for exams, the Blue Devils (7-2, 0-0) host the occasionally pesky Gardner-Webb Running Bulldogs (6-5, 0-0) in Cameron Indoor Stadium (Monday, December 16th, ESPNU, 7 p.m.). Some may remember the Bulldogs upsetting Kentucky in Rupp Arena by 16 points, although that was six years ago now. Duke's last meeting with the Bulldogs came in 2009 exactly four years ago today when the Blue Devils won easily at home by 45 points.

            This year's Bulldogs are an experienced team but were picked in the preseason to finish in the middle of the Big South Conference by most talking heads. They lost their head coach, Chris Holtmann (also last year's Big South Conference Coach of the Year) who accepted a job on Brandon Miller's staff at Butler.

            The Bulldogs are led by 6'5" senior shooting guard, Naji Hibbert, 6'7" junior forward, Donta Harper, and 5'10" junior point guard, Tyler Strange. Hibbert and Harper both average more than 12 points per game and Strange is second in the Big South Conference in assists at 6.1 per game. The Bulldogs also feature a 6'10" senior center in Mike Byron but he's only playing around 17 minutes per game. The Bulldogs only have a handful of players who will even attempt three-pointers: Hibbert and Strange from the starters and reserves Ivey and Castellanos, all shooting in the 30%-37% range.

            Essentially with the loss of their coach, the Bulldogs are seeking a new identity with their players. As is common with Gardner-Webb in the past, their non-conference schedule has been fairly challenging for a mid-major squad. They've already played (and lost) to Xavier and Missouri both on the road and also lost to Chris Collins' Northwestern team. So far their most impressive win has been an overtime win on a neutral floor over Morehead State.

            Enter the Blue Devils coming off their best win of the season over previously #22 Michigan in a win Coach K referred to as "an outstanding defensive game." After two weeks of exams and practice expect the Blue Devils to come out amped to play. It will also be interesting to see how much, if any, Rasheed Sulaimon plays. He didn't play any against Michigan as the Duke coaches were not pleased with his preparation in practice and before games. Likewise, this will be the first game since reserve Alex Murphy announced he was transferring.

            Some may look at this game and think that another near-disaster like the Vermont game is possible but I don't see that here. Vermont while also an experienced team laden with upper-classmen was predicted to win their conference while Gardner-Webb doesn't have nearly the same backing. Also, Duke has played a vigorous schedule thus far and is finally learning how to play together both offensively and defensively.

            Look for the Blue Devils to run away with this one. While there may be some rust after two weeks without a game, I expect Duke's talent inside and out to turn this game into a blowout early. The focus then will be on them finishing the game and closing the other team out. (See issues with ECU, Vermont) Unlike other teams Gardner-Webb doesn't have the 3-point firepower to climb back if they find themselves in an early hole. While Vegas hasn't released a line on this game, I'd expect it to be at least 20 and most likely more.  
DUKE 93, WEBB 65

@chipslate



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