Duke enters Saturday night's ACC Championship Game a 29 point Vegas underdog, which suits the Devils just fine. They were picked to finish towards the bottom of the Coastal Division by all the big media outlets yet here they are with a school record 10 wins and riding an 8 game winning streak. Their quarterback is undefeated as a starter and in true Vegas fashion, the Blue Devils are playing with house money.
Game time conditions look to be around 50 degrees by the 8pm kickoff with light rain and a slight breeze. My simulations included those conditions and even the Bank of America stadium setting. Here are the numbers:
DUKE - FSU
1. 13 - 38
2. 21 - 42
3. 49 - 21 (W)
4. 24 - 14 (W)
5. 7 - 33
6. 30 - 42
7. 23 - 37
8. 14 - 24
9. 28 - 44
10. 24 - 23 (W)
11. 42 - 35 (W)
12. 20 - 21
13. 37 - 34 (W)
14. 28 - 14 (W) 15. 17 - 30 16. 31 - 17 (W) 17. 14 - 44 18. 17 - 28 19. 22 - 24 20. 18 - 15 (W)
The numbers show Duke has a 40% chance to win this game winning 8 of the 20 simulations. The average score was a tantalizing 24-29 in favor of the Seminoles.. The simulations showed a balanced Duke attack in the wins with roughly 110 yards rushing and 285 yards passing. The Mode (which has been fairly accurate in the past) is Duke: 28 or 24 to FSU: 24 or 14.
The computer believes this game will be much closer than the talking media heads believe. They continue to be caught up in the irrelevant past, i.e. Duke has never defeated FSU. What matters is THIS year and this Duke team which has done nothing but prove everyone wrong all season long. They'll hope to 'shock the world' on Saturday but I guarantee you Cutcliffe's crew EXPECTS to win this game. LET'S GO DUKE!
DUKE 24, FSU 29
@chipslate
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