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Davidson's consistently cerebral and scrappy teams remain the paramount reason Duke tends to schedule them on a regular basis. They are consistently well coached, tough minded, and play their hearts out on every possession. (not to mention they show up in the NCAA tournament with regularity) This will mark the third consecutive season the Blue Devils and Wildcats play each other in the regular season with Duke winning in 2011 at home by 13 points and then winning last season in a game played in the Charlotte Bobcats Arena by 17 points. Both of those Davidson teams made the NCAA tournament despite failing to get past the first round.
This year Duke opens the season at home against Davidson while coming off a respectable Elite Eight finish in last year's NCAA tournament. Duke loses their three top scorers from last season and their two top rebounders, all of which were seniors: Mason Plumlee, Seth Curry, and Ryan Kelly. Any other program losing that much talent would be disastrous but this is Duke where the Blue Devils tend to reload rather than rebuild. Arriving are super freshman forward Jabari Parker, forward Semi Ojeleye, and guard Matt Jones as well as transfer Rodney Hood who is ready to break out after having to sit out a year. Expect the starting five to include point guard Quinn Cook, Jabari Parker, Rodney Hood, Amile Jefferson, and most likely Rasheed Sulaimon, but expect guard Andre Dawkins to get plenty of minutes as well after taking last year off. Other key reserves include the Tenacious D-fender Tyler Thornton and Josh Hairston who was just this week named as the third captain along with Thornton and Hood.
Davidson likewise loses three starting seniors off last year's team in forward Jake Cohen, guard Nik Cochran, and guard J.P. Kuhlman. Returning for his senior year however is 6'7" forward De'mon Brooks who was 2nd on the team in scoring last year averaging 13.7 points and 6.2 rebounds per game while shooting 50% from the floor. Chris Czerapowicz, a 6'7" guard also returns as a starter from last year when he averaged 9.1 points and 5 rebounds per game and also led the team in three pointers made. Tyler Kalinoski a 6'4" junior guard returns as well and can also score from three-range. New additions to the team include three-star point guard Jack Gibbs (5'10") and center Andrew McAuliffe (6'8").
While Davidson is poised to win yet another Southern Conference title (before their move to the Atlantic 10 next year) expect them to have trouble with a more athletic and overall more talented Duke team. While De'mon Brooks remains an outstanding athlete he can only play one position at a time. Duke arguably has the most athletically deep team they've ever fielded. This should lead to a battle of game pace as Duke will look to speed up the tempo and run while Davidson will almost surely try to slow the Blue Devils down and play a half-court game. The size differential is minimal unless Duke employs Marshall Plumlee in the middle.
Ultimately, look for both teams to try and find chemistry with their newly assembled groups and look for Duke to take advantage of mismatches in transition. Hood and Parker both have the ability to score at will regardless of who's guarding them. Sulaimon has had a few twenty+ point game performances in the past himself and will be fighting to maintain his supposed starting spot. Amile Jefferson is poised to win the Mr. Clean-up Award for his ability to 'clean up' around the basket with 'garbage' points and steady rebounding.
I wouldn't be surprised if there are 'flat' periods for both teams as it is so early in the season and with having lost so many contributors from the year before. Davidson has the pieces to hit occasional three's to keep them in the game early. Nonetheless, I expect Duke's superior athleticism and depth to suffocate the Davidson offense. Couple that with a raucous Cameron Crowd fired up for the potential of their team and you could have a powder keg that ends in a traditional Duke home-rout of a non-conference opponent and Duke's 102nd consecutive non-conference win at home (currently the longest such streak in the nation).
Vegas has Duke as a 16 point favorite but I believe the Blue Devils will come out running / gunning, cutting off passing lanes, and cover the spread going away: DUKE 87, DAVIDSON 64
--Chip Slate (@chipslate