The Political Junkie Thread

[Phredd3]

How lovely. I loathe gerrymandering, no matter which side does it

You can't advocate gerrymandering and still love democracy. It is anti-democratic. Period. The End.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

How lovely. I loathe gerrymandering, no matter which side does it

You can't advocate gerrymandering and still love democracy. It is anti-democratic. Period. The End.

Totally agree. But here is an interesting question: courts seem to be most likely to step in when they think that districting is diluting minority representation. As much as I am generally supportive of the goal of having minority representation in government, to be truly honest about things, race really should not factor into districting. I have always argued that they should enter every person into a computer with their residence but no tag for gender, race, age, etc. Then the computer could optimize with the goal of compact and contiguous. Sure, you can argue over exactly how that is defined, but I think that becomes just noise. And then the districts shake out as they do.

Ideally we end up with minority representation, but if not, it isn't because of some evil plot.

[Phredd3]

But here is an interesting question: courts seem to be most likely to step in when they think that districting is diluting minority representation. As much as I am generally supportive of the goal of having minority representation in government, to be truly honest about things, race really should not factor into districting. I have always argued that they should enter every person into a computer with their residence but no tag for gender, race, age, etc. Then the computer could optimize with the goal of compact and contiguous. Sure, you can argue over exactly how that is defined, but I think that becomes just noise. And then the districts shake out as they do.

Ideally we end up with minority representation, but if not, it isn't because of some evil plot.

Courts are most likely to step in for race issues because that's what the law tells them to do. In theory, I agree that it would be wonderful if everything up to and including districting were race-blind. But given that it hasn't yet been that way at any point in our country's history, including right now, I'm not sure it's the right answer to just say that race is irrelevant. Something as simple as where the races reside have been influenced by 200+ years of discrimination (like redlining), meaning that contiguous and compact district constructions are already wrapped up in deep-seated, historical race bias. Being race-blind is an excellent goal. From what I've seen, we aren't close to achieving that ideal. As long as that remains true, I think we have to do better than simply being non-racist. I think we have to be actively anti-racist, in districting as well as other things.

[ArkieDukie]

Iowa Caucus is tonight. Who’s watching the coverage?

[OPK]

Iowa Caucus is tonight. Who’s watching the coverage?

I am, although I will be asleep long before they finish up. It is an interesting process up there.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Iowa Caucus is tonight. Who’s watching the coverage?

With 1% of the tally in...Trump is projected the winner!

[ArkieDukie]

I’m a bit appalled at the outcome. Trump ran away with it; people think the legal issues don’t matter. We are doomed.
The good news is that Ramaswamy bowed out. The bad news is that he threw his support to Trump. Methinks he wants a cabinet position.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I’m a bit appalled at the outcome. Trump ran away with it; people think the legal issues don’t matter. We are doomed.
The good news is that Ramaswamy bowed out. The bad news is that he threw his support to Trump. Methinks he wants a cabinet position.

And I think 65% of the Republicans in Iowa think Trump won in 2020. I made a Kool Aid reference on DBR but no one got it - these people are brainwashed and nuts and should not be allowed to vote. These are the same people of Iowa who were banning books in Field of Dreams in the late 80s until Anne Kinsella stood up to them.

But I also read almost nothing into this because Iowa is weird and not in play. I care a lot more about what happens in the more purple states. Trump will take his victory lap and DeSantis might also.

This is just further proof of how dumb our whole political process is - the two party system, primaries, electoral college etc. just leads to bad candidates.

[CameronBornAndBred]

It's now officially a two man race*. Let's see how many GOP folks who shouted that Trump can't be POTUS again stick to their guns now that there are no other options within their party. (Short of legal convictions, and even then)




*Yes, Haley is still in it on paper, but only on paper.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Good news for democracy in NC.

Some of the new changes to elections laws that Republican state lawmakers passed into law late last year are likely unconstitutional and should be blocked from going into effect, at least until problems with the system are fixed, a federal judge ruled over the weekend.

WRAL reports that Sunday’s ruling means those rules likely won’t be used in this year’s elections when North Carolinians will be voting for president, governor and most other key political positions, although GOP leaders can still appeal the ruling. The changes to the law, which have now been blocked, would’ve affected people who use same-day registration during early voting — a process that lets people register to vote, or update their address, then immediately cast a ballot.

https://www.witn.com/2024/01/22/part-ne ... publicans/

[Phredd3]

Maybe it's just the particular places I've listened to recently (and I cop to watching mostly left-leaning sources), but it sure seems to me like there have been a lot of Democratic pundits who are talking about Trump's support being over-estimated this year, and how, since he's "basically running as an incumbent", his support numbers are way less than they should be. I don't know about anyone else, but that attitude just scares the living crud out of me.

First, were they not here in 2016 and 2020? The polls in 2016 were mostly predicting a comfortable win for Hillary, and while Trump may have lost 2020, he out-performed nationwide polling by a pretty good bit.

Second, if you want your side to actually win the next election, the very last thing you should do is foster any sense of complacency. If you believe the guy is an existential threat to democracy - as I do - responsible coverage should be telling people at every opportunity that the only way to safeguard democracy is to get out there and vote for the other guy, even if you don't think he's the ideal candidate. NO level of support for Trump is a safe number. Get out the door and pound the pavement. Register someone. DO SOMETHING! Democrats need the exact inverse of complacency.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Maybe it's just the particular places I've listened to recently (and I cop to watching mostly left-leaning sources), but it sure seems to me like there have been a lot of Democratic pundits who are talking about Trump's support being over-estimated this year, and how, since he's "basically running as an incumbent", his support numbers are way less than they should be. I don't know about anyone else, but that attitude just scares the living crud out of me.

First, were they not here in 2016 and 2020? The polls in 2016 were mostly predicting a comfortable win for Hillary, and while Trump may have lost 2020, he out-performed nationwide polling by a pretty good bit.

Second, if you want your side to actually win the next election, the very last thing you should do is foster any sense of complacency. If you believe the guy is an existential threat to democracy - as I do - responsible coverage should be telling people at every opportunity that the only way to safeguard democracy is to get out there and vote for the other guy, even if you don't think he's the ideal candidate. NO level of support for Trump is a safe number. Get out the door and pound the pavement. Register someone. DO SOMETHING! Democrats need the exact inverse of complacency.

Totally agree. I will not sleep well until Biden has been declared the winner. Assume the worst. Take nothing for granted. I really hope someone has a plan here. Is anyone talking to Obama?

There are countless things that need to be done but there are a few that I repeatedly focus on:

1. Make it 100% clear to those on the far left of the Democratic party what is going on. Not voting is a vote for Trump. Third party is a vote for Trump. They all have plenty of issues with Biden but make it very clear what their alternative is. It is a binary choice. I remain convinced that these voters not showing up is what helped Trump win in 2016. I don't know what bone Biden has to throw them, but the people they listen to need to speak up.
2. Meanwhile, Biden and the Dems can't let them run the show. Because this will alienate the never-Trump Republicans, who are a critical part of the coalition. Biden needs to be welcoming to them. Again, progressives need to recognize why he is doing this and stop with their purity tests. And the Dems need to run countless messages showing what a nightmare Trump is so these people are scared into voting for Biden. Where is the Lincoln Project?
3. Lawyer up. Make sure all of the voting rules are clear and favorable. Do it now. Not in October. Trump and his followers don't play fair. They have no problem with cheating. Be ready for it. As many have said, 2020 was a practice run for them. Their whole reason for being is "winning." They think they are saving the country from us. Don't let it happen.

[OPK]

Maybe it's just the particular places I've listened to recently (and I cop to watching mostly left-leaning sources), but it sure seems to me like there have been a lot of Democratic pundits who are talking about Trump's support being over-estimated this year, and how, since he's "basically running as an incumbent", his support numbers are way less than they should be. I don't know about anyone else, but that attitude just scares the living crud out of me.

First, were they not here in 2016 and 2020? The polls in 2016 were mostly predicting a comfortable win for Hillary, and while Trump may have lost 2020, he out-performed nationwide polling by a pretty good bit.

Second, if you want your side to actually win the next election, the very last thing you should do is foster any sense of complacency. If you believe the guy is an existential threat to democracy - as I do - responsible coverage should be telling people at every opportunity that the only way to safeguard democracy is to get out there and vote for the other guy, even if you don't think he's the ideal candidate. NO level of support for Trump is a safe number. Get out the door and pound the pavement. Register someone. DO SOMETHING! Democrats need the exact inverse of complacency.

You’re singing my song, friend. 100% this.

[ArkieDukie]

Yes to all this. However, put me in the group of those 100% terrified that Trump is even the nominee. I may have said this before, but imo we are royally screwed. If Trump loses and it’s close, he claims he rightfully won and incites violence again. That violence will be worse this time. I don’t even want to think about how awful it will be if he wins.

Our only real path forward is if Biden wins so decisively that it cannot be argued. Even then, I don’t trust that buffoon to NOT cook up some elaborate conspiracy theory about how Biden stole the election from him. MAGAites believe that garbage, and they cannot be reasoned with. I say this from personal experience within my own family.

[Phredd3]

Our only real path forward is if Biden wins so decisively that it cannot be argued. Even then, I don’t trust that buffoon to NOT cook up some elaborate conspiracy theory about how Biden stole the election from him. MAGAites believe that garbage, and they cannot be reasoned with. I say this from personal experience within my own family.

As you note there at the end, there is no win so decisive that it cannot be argued, for the simple reason that MAGAcolytes do not argue. They worship. There is no set of facts that will support a Trump loss in their minds. A really big loss will be accepted as de facto evidence that the fix was in from the start. A smaller loss will be evidence that the "deep state" was subtly at work. But they will happily accept a win as free and fair, even if Republican cheating can be proven.

Trump is the nominee, and at this stage of the game, that is not going to change. The ONLY priority now is defeating him. The violence we can prepare for. After all, this time, Trump is not holding the reigns of power. It's a lot harder to power grab from the outside. Which is why it is imperative to keep Trump from getting back in.

[CameronBornAndBred]

West Virginia is weird.

A former CEO of a coal company who once said he is “Trumpier than Trump” has launched a bid for Senate as a Democrat in West Virginia.

Don Blankenship, who previously ran for the Republican nomination for the seat in 2018 but lost, filed his candidacy Friday for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Joe Manchin (D), according to a filing on the West Virginia secretary of state office’s website.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ex-coal-ceo- ... 47331.html

[OPK]

You’re gonna need a lot of fundraisers to get $83.3 million. Just sayin’

[CrazyNotCrazie]

You’re gonna need a lot of fundraisers to get $83.3 million. Just sayin’

He is going to stall paying as long as humanly possible.

Then all of his worshippers who are whining about the economy and the price of gas will dig in their couch cushions to send their last pennies to the alleged billionaire to pay his bills.

The only punishment that would remotely have meaning for him is a) being in jail, and/or b) not getting media attention. It is truly like dealing with a child (no offense to children). Give him a timeout and don't respond to him.

I wish I could see what his total legal bills are, and how many of them are actually getting paid.

[OPK]

You’re gonna need a lot of fundraisers to get $83.3 million. Just sayin’

He is going to stall paying as long as humanly possible.

Then all of his worshippers who are whining about the economy and the price of gas will dig in their couch cushions to send their last pennies to the alleged billionaire to pay his bills.

The only punishment that would remotely have meaning for him is a) being in jail, and/or b) not getting media attention. It is truly like dealing with a child (no offense to children). Give him a timeout and don't respond to him.

I wish I could see what his total legal bills are, and how many of them are actually getting paid.

On your last point, Rudy listed an “unknown” amount of legal bills owed by Trump. We could see the bankruptcy trustee suing Trump on behalf of Rudy’s creditors to collect. That will be fun.

On the rest, I agree but note that he will have to put up a bond on this judgment and the upcoming NY fraud judgment to appeal. That is gonna tie up a lot of cash and assets as security to pay the judgments if upheld. If he can dupe followers into paying part of that, so be it. That’s money not going towards winning the election.

[CameronBornAndBred]

The beyond sad state of politics today, where reaching across the aisle earns you censure from your own party.

The Oklahoma Republican Party approved a resolution Saturday censuring Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., and attacking the Republican lawmaker for negotiating with Democrats on a potential border deal.
...
The resolution also calls on Lankford to “cease and desist jeopardizing the security and liberty” of Americans.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/republican-s ... 54735.html