The Political Junkie Thread

[Furniture]

Biden's own classified document stash keeps getting bigger, with them now being found in his house. Not in some closet, either, but his fucking garage. WTG!

I can hear Trump laughing in Florida from New Bern.

A “locked” garage though……please! . Anyone know what a Trunt is?

[CameronBornAndBred]

Yay! A poll! Yay!

Former President Trump holds at 17-point lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in a hypothetical GOP primary match-up, according to a new poll.

A Morning Consult poll released Wednesday showed Trump with 48 percent support among potential Republican primary voters, followed by DeSantis with 31 percent. Trump’s front-runner position differs from some polls since the November midterm elections, which have shown DeSantis closing the gap with Trump or taking a lead in some cases.

Former Vice President Mike Pence came in third with 8 percent, followed by former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) with 3 percent. Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) both received 2 percent.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-trounc ... 18271.html

[CameronBornAndBred]

Who gets indicted first?
George Anthony Zabrovsky Kitara Ravache Devolder Santos or Donald Trump?

[OPK]

Who gets indicted first?
George Anthony Zabrovsky Kitara Ravache Devolder Santos or Donald Trump?

Trump, in Georgia, before St. Patrick’s Day.

(No inside info)

[Phredd3]

Who gets indicted first?
George Anthony Zabrovsky Kitara Ravache Devolder Santos or Donald Trump?

Trump, in Georgia, before St. Patrick’s Day.

(No inside info)

I had no idea that OPK was a Tamarian.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Who gets indicted first?
George Anthony Zabrovsky Kitara Ravache Devolder Santos or Donald Trump?

Trump, in Georgia, before St. Patrick’s Day.

(No inside info)

I had no idea that OPK was a Tamarian.

If I could reach through this screen and punch you in the balls I would. That's how much I loathe that episode of TNG.
That being said, excellent reference.

[Phredd3]

Trump, in Georgia, before St. Patrick’s Day.

(No inside info)

I had no idea that OPK was a Tamarian.

If I could reach through this screen and punch you in the balls I would. That's how much I loathe that episode of TNG.
That being said, excellent reference.

And just so we're clear, I would fully accept the reasonableness of such a punch. Nobody likes that episode. Everybody remembers it.

[CameronBornAndBred]

With news today of Pence having classified docs, I'm getting jealous that I don't have any.

[OPK]

With news today of Pence having classified docs, I'm getting jealous that I don't have any.

Phhht. Peasant.

;-)

[CrazyNotCrazie]

With news today of Pence having classified docs, I'm getting jealous that I don't have any.

One would think that at this point, anyone who might possibly have classified documents would be searching all of their homes for them and burning whatever the find. I would expect the DC-area to be looking like the Vatican with smoke coming out of every chimney.

[Phredd3]

So, the FBI raided Biden's Delaware vacation house this morning, looking for classified documents. They didn't find anything.

Still think the public won't see any difference between Biden and Trump in this regard? Also, was there any chance that the FBI would have raided Trump's home while Trump was president? This is a major sign that government is actually working the way it is supposed to be working. Dems need to message the hell out of it. The right will, of course, claim that they didn't find anything because Biden is president, but Dems aren't talking to those people. Dems are talking to the folks with a brain who are in what's left of the political middle. Just for emphasisi, The Dems need to message the hell out of it.

[CameronBornAndBred]

The POTUS race is FINALLY starting to take shape. And of course, so is Trump's campaign, which will mostly consist of "I was robbed, and everyone who stands against me sucks. And if they win the nomination, I won't endorse their suckiness."

Donald Trump is raising the nightmare scenario for Republicans in the 2024 presidential election – that he might refuse to endorse the party’s nominee if he loses his primary race.

The former president’s warning comes as he escalates efforts to try to scare off or damage potential party rivals who are maneuvering ahead of their own possible campaign launches as a so-far-sleepy GOP contest bursts into life.

Specifically, Trump is turning on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and his former secretary of state, Mike Pompeo. These veiled threats foretell his likely attempts to stigmatize their brands in the eyes of Republican primary voters and mirror his successful 2016 caricaturing of rivals.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... f3072c94bb

[OPK]

The POTUS race is FINALLY starting to take shape. And of course, so is Trump's campaign, which will mostly consist of "I was robbed, and everyone who stands against me sucks. And if they win the nomination, I won't endorse their suckiness."

Donald Trump is raising the nightmare scenario for Republicans in the 2024 presidential election – that he might refuse to endorse the party’s nominee if he loses his primary race.

The former president’s warning comes as he escalates efforts to try to scare off or damage potential party rivals who are maneuvering ahead of their own possible campaign launches as a so-far-sleepy GOP contest bursts into life.

Specifically, Trump is turning on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and his former secretary of state, Mike Pompeo. These veiled threats foretell his likely attempts to stigmatize their brands in the eyes of Republican primary voters and mirror his successful 2016 caricaturing of rivals.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... f3072c94bb

“Give me what I want or I’ll burn your party down.”

Rs should have ripped off the band aid two years ago and cut him loose. Now they’re stuck with him.

Never play chicken with someone who actually wants to wreck the car.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

The POTUS race is FINALLY starting to take shape. And of course, so is Trump's campaign, which will mostly consist of "I was robbed, and everyone who stands against me sucks. And if they win the nomination, I won't endorse their suckiness."

Donald Trump is raising the nightmare scenario for Republicans in the 2024 presidential election – that he might refuse to endorse the party’s nominee if he loses his primary race.

The former president’s warning comes as he escalates efforts to try to scare off or damage potential party rivals who are maneuvering ahead of their own possible campaign launches as a so-far-sleepy GOP contest bursts into life.

Specifically, Trump is turning on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and his former secretary of state, Mike Pompeo. These veiled threats foretell his likely attempts to stigmatize their brands in the eyes of Republican primary voters and mirror his successful 2016 caricaturing of rivals.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... f3072c94bb

“Give me what I want or I’ll burn your party down.”

Rs should have ripped off the band aid two SIX years ago and cut him loose. Now they’re stuck with him.

Never play chicken with someone who actually wants to wreck the car.

Fixed it for you. Though I have my tiers of horribleness:

1. Those who still blindly support Trump
2. Those who supported him in 2016, thinking he couldn't be as bad as he seemed, but walked away in 2020
3. Those who never supported him to begin with

There are obviously lots of incremental points where people could jump off the crazy train, but those are the three main points.

I would like the Republican primary to be a real blood bath. I would be much more optimistic about that if I felt confident in who the Democrat candidate is going to be.

[CameronBornAndBred]

This is pretty interesting. Where does Trump stand in the coming race? What about DeSantis? Only the Shadow Knows, apparently.

In national surveys since last November’s midterm election, different pollsters have shown him with anywhere between 25% and 55% of the vote in a multicandidate field.

That’s right: a mere 30-point gap.

In just the last two weeks, an Emerson College poll found Trump leading DeSantis by 26 points, 55% to 29%, in a multicandidate field, while a Bulwark/North Star/Dynata poll over a similar period found DeSantis leading by 11 points, 39% to 28%.

This is not normal. It’s also a recent development. In the three months before the midterm election, 10 polling firms showed a much more typical 12-point spread in Trump’s share of support, between 45% and 57%.

Whether Trump is at 25% or 55% is no small matter. Believe it or not, early polling is fairly predictive of the eventual outcome in presidential primaries.
.....
There are many reasons polls can disagree, but most of the usual explanations don’t add up to a huge 30-point gap:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-way-wa ... 57395.html

[OPK]

We also likely have one or more indictments, and a massive $250 million civil suit in NYC, between now and Iowa for Trump. Gonna be an interesting trip to get there, and to see how that impacts his support.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

This is pretty interesting. Where does Trump stand in the coming race? What about DeSantis? Only the Shadow Knows, apparently.

In national surveys since last November’s midterm election, different pollsters have shown him with anywhere between 25% and 55% of the vote in a multicandidate field.

That’s right: a mere 30-point gap.

In just the last two weeks, an Emerson College poll found Trump leading DeSantis by 26 points, 55% to 29%, in a multicandidate field, while a Bulwark/North Star/Dynata poll over a similar period found DeSantis leading by 11 points, 39% to 28%.

This is not normal. It’s also a recent development. In the three months before the midterm election, 10 polling firms showed a much more typical 12-point spread in Trump’s share of support, between 45% and 57%.

Whether Trump is at 25% or 55% is no small matter. Believe it or not, early polling is fairly predictive of the eventual outcome in presidential primaries.
.....
There are many reasons polls can disagree, but most of the usual explanations don’t add up to a huge 30-point gap:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-way-wa ... 57395.html

I read somewhere (I think NYT) that Trump likely wants as big of a field as possible. About 25% of Republicans will vote for him no matter who he shoots on 5th Avenue. So the more ways the rest of the votes are split, the more likely it is for the 25% to win him primary states (since I believe most are winner takes all). If there was ranked choice voting this would be less of an issue. But there is no way that change is being made.

Meanwhile, it sounds like the Democrats are rallying around Biden, particularly if it looks like Trump will be the opponent, which makes age much less of an issue. I assume he would stick with Harris?

[OPK]

This is pretty interesting. Where does Trump stand in the coming race? What about DeSantis? Only the Shadow Knows, apparently.

In national surveys since last November’s midterm election, different pollsters have shown him with anywhere between 25% and 55% of the vote in a multicandidate field.

That’s right: a mere 30-point gap.

In just the last two weeks, an Emerson College poll found Trump leading DeSantis by 26 points, 55% to 29%, in a multicandidate field, while a Bulwark/North Star/Dynata poll over a similar period found DeSantis leading by 11 points, 39% to 28%.

This is not normal. It’s also a recent development. In the three months before the midterm election, 10 polling firms showed a much more typical 12-point spread in Trump’s share of support, between 45% and 57%.

Whether Trump is at 25% or 55% is no small matter. Believe it or not, early polling is fairly predictive of the eventual outcome in presidential primaries.
.....
There are many reasons polls can disagree, but most of the usual explanations don’t add up to a huge 30-point gap:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-way-wa ... 57395.html

I read somewhere (I think NYT) that Trump likely wants as big of a field as possible. About 25% of Republicans will vote for him no matter who he shoots on 5th Avenue. So the more ways the rest of the votes are split, the more likely it is for the 25% to win him primary states (since I believe most are winner takes all). If there was ranked choice voting this would be less of an issue. But there is no way that change is being made.

Meanwhile, it sounds like the Democrats are rallying around Biden, particularly if it looks like Trump will be the opponent, which makes age much less of an issue. I assume he would stick with Harris?

I think Biden has to stick with Harris for a number of reasons.

Agree that a large field helps Trump, at least for now. But Iowa is a year away, way too early to worry about the number of challengers IMO. While early polls can be predictive, if they were ironclad we would have had Dick Gerhardt, Joe Lieberman and Jeb Bush as nominees. I think the field will narrow down quickly, mainly because donors are going to hold their powder until a clear alternative establishes himself/herself.

And again, Trump may be facing a criminal indictment or trial that has to give pause. Even to the most dedicated. They may love Trump, but they wanna win too.

At least, that’s how I see it. Could well be wrong.

[OPK]

Koch brothers decide it’s time for anyone but Trump in the R primary:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/05/politics ... index.html

If Trump has trouble lining up donors he’s in trouble — or at least that’s a pretty bad sign.

[Phredd3]

Koch brothers decide it’s time for anyone but Trump in the R primary:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/05/politics ... index.html

If Trump has trouble lining up donors he’s in trouble — or at least that’s a pretty bad sign.

He'll drop out quickly if he can't get donors. The one thing Trump won't do is spend his own money on a campaign.