The simulations are back after a short hiatus. This week posed an interesting issue with Boone potentially being back but not confirmed, so I did what any self-respecting nerd would do:
I did 20 simulations featuring each quarterback! 20 with Connette as QB and 20 with Boone as QB.
The Vegas line opened up with Duke as a 3 point favorite but with the potential for Boone being back, most sportsbooks have removed this game from their available bets. Here's the data:
Connette: ------------ Boone:
1. 13-10 ------------ 28-24
2. 28-7 ------------ 35-29 OT
3. 21-14 ------------ 28-25
4. 28-26 ------------ 21-9
5. 17-34 W ------------ 14-31 W
6. 13-0 ------------ 42-21
7. 6-20 W ------------ 17-14
8. 17-16 ------------ 19-21 W
9. 31-21 ------------ 14-21 W
10. 35-21 ------------ 31-37 W OT
11. 28-21 ------------ 23-17 OT
12. 14-17 W------------ 21-14
13. 14-13 ------------ 13-10
14. 27-28 W------------ 21-13
15. 30-3 ------------ 24-21
16. 28-26 ------------ 21-35 W
17. 14-20 W------------ 7-23 W
18. 14-21 W------------ 17-14
19. 17-14 ------------ 21-26 W
20. 14-10 ------------ 24-21
With Boone the simulations show one more win per 20 games or a winning % of 30% for Connette and 35% for Boone. The overall average score was Navy 21, Duke 19 (rounded) or +2 for Duke.
The mode score (which has been the most accurate indicator in the past) is Navy 14, Duke 21.
Here's to hoping the MODE is where it's at this week!
GAME------------VEGAS-------SIMULATED SPREAD--------ACTUAL SPREAD------SPREAD PREDICTED?
Memphis(A)-------(-4)-----------------(-12)-----------------------(-14)-------------------Yes
Ga. Tech(H)-------(+8)----------------(+12)-----------------------(+24)-------------------Yes
Pittsburgh (H)-----(+4)----------------(+7)-------------------------(-3)--------------------NO
Troy(H)-------------(-11)---------------(+7)-------------------------(-7)-------------------NO
Navy(H)------------(-3)-----------------(+2)-------------------------(??)--------------------???
