The Political Junkie Thread

[Phredd3]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... 0cc8&ei=43

If he had to await trial at Rikers I bet he wouldn't do his usual stall tactics.

It sounds like this will be a tough one to get a guilty verdict on. Hopefully the judge won't put up with any of his shenanigans.

My office is walking distance from where all of this is likely taking place but I will be staying far away.

If I represented Trump, of course the first thing I would do is get my money up front. Then, of all the legal jeopardy he may face, this one would give me the least heartburn. Georgia, the Feds, and the NY lawsuit in October are much more problematic. This by contrast seems like a Bill Clinton — lied about an affair, will have some minor legal impact if convicted (no jail)*, may actually help politically.


*Unless Trump start attacking the judge on social media or inciting the threat of violence, in which case all bets are off.

I dunno. Anything with a mug shot can't be good. He won't exactly get to control that particular photo op. I just wish the Rs would settle on someone a little farther from MAGA than Ron-Ron.

[OPK]

For all the focus on NYC right now, I think this is the biggest story going in terms of Trump’s danger zone:

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/16386 ... 4eQSVGFT_g

yep yep

That's likely making him sweat.

Not only the substance, but the way the court handled it. Trump or the attorney filed an appeal; the court gave them until midnight that night to file their brief and the government until 6 am to file theirs. Then ruled this afternoon. The speed of that is stunning.

[OPK]

For all the focus on NYC right now, I think this is the biggest story going in terms of Trump’s danger zone:

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/16386 ... 4eQSVGFT_g

yep yep

That's likely making him sweat.

Not only the substance, but the way the court handled it. Trump or the attorney filed an appeal; the court gave them until midnight that night to file their brief and the government until 6 am to file theirs. Then ruled this afternoon. The speed of that is stunning.

The attorney has two choices. One, he can say that he drafted the certification about the documents either knowing what he put in it was false or that he was grossly negligent in not really checking. That is a disbaravle offense at best and a felony at worst. Or, two, he can say that Trump told him there were no more documents. I don’t know the lawyer, but he is a former federal prosecutor and worked at a pretty good firm. I doubt he is a Jack leg.

And Lordy, there are audio tapes apparently. Or were.

[OPK]

For all the focus on NYC right now, I think this is the biggest story going in terms of Trump’s danger zone:

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/16386 ... 4eQSVGFT_g

yep yep

That's likely making him sweat.

Not only the substance, but the way the court handled it. Trump or the attorney filed an appeal; the court gave them until midnight that night to file their brief and the government until 6 am to file theirs. Then ruled this afternoon. The speed of that is stunning.

The attorney has two choices. One, he can say that he drafted the certification about the documents either knowing what he put in it was false or that he was grossly negligent in not really checking. That is a disbarable offense at best and a felony at worst. Or, two, he can say that Trump told him there were no more documents and lied. The judge found probably cause that their communications evidence a felony such that attorney-client privilege is penetrated (which is really mind-blowing).

I don’t know the lawyer, but he is a former federal prosecutor and worked at a pretty good firm. I doubt he is a Jack leg. If I had to guess between this accomplished lawyer and DJT as to which was a lying felon, well . . .

And Lordy, there are audio tapes apparently. Or were.

[CameronBornAndBred]

And Lordy, there are audio tapes apparently. Or were.

Yep. I wonder who made them. Corcoran I guess? Surely he would have taken notes, at least.

And I'll call you Shirley all day long.

[OPK]

And Lordy, there are audio tapes apparently. Or were.

Yep. I wonder who made them. Corcoran I guess? Surely he would have taken notes, at least.

And I'll call you Shirley all day long.

And, Shirley, Corcoran was ordered to turn over his notes and transcripts of the recordings to the Feds on Friday!

Ruh Roh.

[CameronBornAndBred]

The grand jury is once again not convening today.

[OPK]

The grand jury is once again not convening today.

Sounds like a weak case falling apart.

We obviously do not know all of the evidence, but if all the DA has is Cohen’s credibility to rely upon them they are in deep trouble. There is a reason the former DA elected to pass on this case.

We shall see. Georgia may be first to indict after all.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

The grand jury is once again not convening today.

Sounds like a weak case falling apart.

We obviously do not know all of the evidence, but if all the DA has is Cohen’s credibility to rely upon them they are in deep trouble. There is a reason the former DA elected to pass on this case.

We shall see. Georgia may be first to indict after all.

NYT says that they normally do not hear testimony about the Trump case on Thursdays so this delay was expected and it will likely slip to next week.

I am still not overly optimistic about the situation - I agree that Georgia seems like a better case. Just wish they would hurry it up. This is getting absolutely ridiculous.

[OPK]

The grand jury is once again not convening today.

Sounds like a weak case falling apart.

We obviously do not know all of the evidence, but if all the DA has is Cohen’s credibility to rely upon them they are in deep trouble. There is a reason the former DA elected to pass on this case.

We shall see. Georgia may be first to indict after all.

NYT says that they normally do not hear testimony about the Trump case on Thursdays so this delay was expected and it will likely slip to next week.

I am still not overly optimistic about the situation - I agree that Georgia seems like a better case. Just wish they would hurry it up. This is getting absolutely ridiculous.

Agreed. Fani has had ample time to make a decision, and either to act or to announce she is done. This is absurd.

Who knows about NY. Without a smoking gun I would not bring the case. Cohen’s credibility is easily impeachable on so many topics.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Jack Smith may wind up being ahead of both NY and Georgia.

Here are five things that the rapid-fire appellate order brings into focus.

1. Courts are losing patience with Trump.

Judges have watched Trump’s dilatory litigation tactics for years. They know the clock is ticking on Special Counsel Smith’s investigations if he is to complete them before 2024’s political season.

And so, the appellate court sent a signal Wednesday: “Time’s up on legally unsound delaying tactics in this jurisdiction.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... 1725&ei=42

That's a pretty good article, stemming of course from the amazingly fast actions of the court yesterday.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Trump's social media post on Truth Social late last night (taken from the NYT article - shockingly, I am not on Truth Social)

“What kind of person, can charge another person, in this case a former president of the United States, who got more votes than any sitting president in history, and leading candidate (by far!) for the Republican Party nomination, with a crime, when it is known by all that NO crime has been committed, & also that potential death & destruction in such a false charge could be catastrophic for our country?”

“Why & who would do such a thing? Only a degenerate psychopath that truely hates the USA!”

I love how he weaves in that he got more votes than any sitting president in history. A) who cares? B) how is this relevant? Oh, you're really popular. So therefore you are not responsible for committing crimes. Yeah, America!

Tens of millions of people worship and vote for this person. SMDH.

[OPK]

I love how he weaves in that he got more votes than any sitting president in history. A) who cares? B) how is this relevant? Oh, you're really popular. So therefore you are not responsible for committing crimes. Yeah, America!

And, of course, it is untrue. He lost the popular vote both times, including to Biden by some seven million votes IIRC.

I wonder at this point how many super loyalists there are for him. I think the Trump Army is a hoax or at least greatly diminished. Many Rs have moved on, many Rs are tired of losing with him, and many Trump super loyalists feel he left them out to dry on J6. It doesn’t mean they aren’t there or that they aren’t dangerous — but I believe their actual numbers are overestimated.

I could be wrong though.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I love how he weaves in that he got more votes than any sitting president in history. A) who cares? B) how is this relevant? Oh, you're really popular. So therefore you are not responsible for committing crimes. Yeah, America!

And, of course, it is untrue. He lost the popular vote both times, including to Biden by some seven million votes IIRC.

I wonder at this point how many super loyalists there are for him. I think the Trump Army is a hoax or at least greatly diminished. Many Rs have moved on, many Rs are tired of losing with him, and many Trump super loyalists feel he left them out to dry on J6. It doesn’t mean they aren’t there or that they aren’t dangerous — but I believe their actual numbers are overestimated.

I could be wrong though.

Theoretically I think it actually is true. I think he did get more votes than any sitting president - his absolute number of votes was more than Obama in 2012, Bush in 2004, Clinton in 1996, etc. It just so happens that a non-sitting person happened to get more votes than him in the same election.

I think his cult remains - when I leave the friendly confines of my very blue echo-chamber I see plenty of ridiculous Trump flags and such. But I agree that their numbers are likely shrinking, and they will be even more likely to leave him behind if provided with an alternative like DeSantis who is relatively close without as much drama.

But for many, supporting Trump is like being in a club, and they take a lot of pride in it. There are all these people who think the coastal liberal eggheads were running the country and making life miserable for them (even though their lives weren't that bad) and Trump was the guy who stood up to them, so they now will support him no matter what. They had no interest in traditional political etiquette and like that Trump turned everything upside down and stuck it to the man. These people do not stand for anything. They just stand against the traditional establishment.

[Phredd3]

But for many, supporting Trump is like being in a club, and they take a lot of pride in it. There are all these people who think the coastal liberal eggheads were running the country and making life miserable for them (even though their lives weren't that bad) and Trump was the guy who stood up to them, so they now will support him no matter what. They had no interest in traditional political etiquette and like that Trump turned everything upside down and stuck it to the man. These people do not stand for anything. They just stand against the traditional establishment.

The real irony, of course, being that Trump IS the man. There's nothing Trump has ever done that indicates he is in any way on the "side" of anyone that isn't a multi-millionaire. Why relatively poor, rural Republicans think that Trump is a good representative for their interests remains an absolute mystery to me. Biden is a far better representative of their actual interests. Not that I think it is possible to change that at this point, but I just think it is fascinating how the narrative has been woven in such a way that millions of people are willing to vote directly against their own obvious self-interest.

Having said that, I also agree with OPK that the number of blind Trump loyalists is quite a bit less than it was, and most importantly, his support among establishment Republicans is wavering. Republicans over the last 20 years or so have been a party that does not tolerate dissension within the ranks. (Just look at the recent vote here in NC on Medicaid Expansion: After a decade of basically unanimous R opposition, it suddenly passed the legislature 87-24 in the NC House and 44-2 in the NC Senate.) But when it comes to Trump, the signals are a lot more mixed than they were pre-2020. It will be interesting to see what happens when primary season begins, but it would not surprise me to see Trump not get the nomination at all. Establishment Rs are tired of him, it's just proving to be difficult to shrug him off after sucking up to him for so many years. Also, they are very afraid that The Don will be more effective than he was last time at cleaning house and installing only pure loyalists. Many Rs have been publicly loyal to Trump, but privately expressing doubts. I think many are terrified that Trump knows the difference and will purge them if he gets elected again. The Cult of Personality is coming home to roost and giving Rs one heck of a dilemma.

[CameronBornAndBred]

The real irony, of course, being that Trump IS the man. There's nothing Trump has ever done that indicates he is in any way on the "side" of anyone that isn't a multi-millionaire. Why relatively poor, rural Republicans think that Trump is a good representative for their interests remains an absolute mystery to me.

Well he's also convinced hundreds of thousands of evangelicals that a misogynistic, racist, narcissistic, demagogue who could give a rats ass about the less fortunate is the second coming of Christ.
Of course what he's accomplished in doing that in itself is fairly miraculous, so there's that.

[OPK]

I’m sure that Trump’s decision to launch his rally campaign in Waco tonight, during the 30th anniversary of the deadly standoff with the feds there, is purely coincidental.

[DukePA]

“HERE IS THE TRUTH”
“Trump's supporters don't measure his success by what he does FOR them, they measure by what he does AGAINST people they don't like. That's why they see him as being "successful." This is why they will NEVER abandon him.
His tormenting of the "others" sustains them.”

Stolen from Facebook

[OPK]

“HERE IS THE TRUTH”
“Trump's supporters don't measure his success by what he does FOR them, they measure by what he does AGAINST people they don't like. That's why they see him as being "successful." This is why they will NEVER abandon him.
His tormenting of the "others" sustains them.”

Stolen from Facebook

For some, “owning the Libs” is a goal onto itself.

[DukePA]

“HERE IS THE TRUTH”
“Trump's supporters don't measure his success by what he does FOR them, they measure by what he does AGAINST people they don't like. That's why they see him as being "successful." This is why they will NEVER abandon him.
His tormenting of the "others" sustains them.”

Stolen from Facebook

For some, “owning the Libs” is a goal onto itself.

Despite the cost they and their families pay. Heartbreaking