crazietalk.net

The simulations are back after a short hiatus. This week posed an interesting issue with Boone potentially being back but not confirmed, so I did what any self-respecting nerd would do:

I did 20 simulations featuring each quarterback! 20 with Connette as QB and 20 with Boone as QB.

The Vegas line opened up with Duke as a 3 point favorite but with the potential for Boone being back, most sportsbooks have removed this game from their available bets. Here's the data:

Connette: ------------ Boone:

1. 13-10 ------------ 28-24
2. 28-7 ------------ 35-29 OT
3. 21-14 ------------ 28-25
4. 28-26 ------------ 21-9
5. 17-34 W ------------ 14-31 W
6. 13-0 ------------ 42-21
7. 6-20 W ------------ 17-14
8. 17-16 ------------ 19-21 W
9. 31-21 ------------ 14-21 W
10. 35-21 ------------ 31-37 W OT
11. 28-21 ------------ 23-17 OT
12. 14-17 W------------ 21-14
13. 14-13 ------------ 13-10
14. 27-28 W------------ 21-13
15. 30-3 ------------ 24-21
16. 28-26 ------------ 21-35 W
17. 14-20 W------------ 7-23 W
18. 14-21 W------------ 17-14
19. 17-14 ------------ 21-26 W
20. 14-10 ------------ 24-21

With Boone the simulations show one more win per 20 games or a winning % of 30% for Connette and 35% for Boone. The overall average score was Navy 21, Duke 19 (rounded) or +2 for Duke.
The mode score (which has been the most accurate indicator in the past) is Navy 14, Duke 21.
Here's to hoping the MODE is where it's at this week!



GAME------------VEGAS-------SIMULATED SPREAD--------ACTUAL SPREAD------SPREAD PREDICTED?

Memphis(A)-------(-4)-----------------(-12)-----------------------(-14)-------------------Yes
Ga. Tech(H)-------(+8)----------------(+12)-----------------------(+24)-------------------Yes
Pittsburgh (H)-----(+4)----------------(+7)-------------------------(-3)--------------------NO
Troy(H)-------------(-11)---------------(+7)-------------------------(-7)-------------------NO
Navy(H)------------(-3)-----------------(+2)-------------------------(??)--------------------???

Let's go, mode!

A La Mode!!

Depeche.

Wow. Not even close for this one, right? From what I saw, the turnover right before halftime was a game-changer.

Made the mistake of watching the South Carolina-Arkansas game. It was u-g-l-y. Finally turned it off and fell asleep for about 30 min. Woke up in time to see the end of the Duke game. What a great win!

First game we've had to miss in two or three years. SOB! From here it looked like a beauty. Must admit, though, that seeing players close up on TV was fun. SO excited to have not one but TWO quarterbacks with great experience as we head to the meat of things in the conference. They sure have quieted the "Fire Curt Roper" fans ......including me! Bless their hearts!

Go Devils!
Love, Ima

What a fun game to watch. I'm proud of the team and staff.

It was a great win indeed. Simulation wasn't even close.

Duke's defense the 2nd half was suffocating. Boone was likewise great for having been out so long. Great win all around!

Hopefully they take this momentum with them to Charlottesville next week!

That was fun!