crazietalk.net

This week's Depth Chart adjustments included removing Aaron Boone, moving B. Connette to Starting QB and moving Parker Boehme to 2nd string QB. (Sirk is still unavailable)
Georgia Tech has no injuries as they've only "played" the Phoenix of Elon so far (if you call 70-0 playing...)


P.S. The ratings shown on the picture are out of a maximum of 99. The loss of Boone equated to a 2 point ratings loss in Offense and then the Overall for Duke which were both 77's last week.

Weather.com is showing 74 degrees, partly cloudy and a slight wind at 8 mph. (absolutely perfect football weather)

Vegas is showing Georgia Tech as an 8 point favorite as of Monday. (aka GT -8 or Duke +8)

Here are the simulation results (with Duke's rushing and passing yards per simulation added as well); Duke's score is listed first:

1. 0-38 (L) 28 rush 173 pass
2. 14-38 (L) 19 rush 154 pass
3. 13-38 (L) 28 rush 150 pass
4. 23-26 (L) 59 rush 305 pass
5. 31-35 (L) 75 rush 360 pass
6. 36-14 (W) 76 rush 337 pass
7. 14-17 (L) 17 rush 216 pass
8. 24-30 (L) 23 rush 344 pass
9. 14-20 (L) 99 rush 154 pass
10. 7-45 (L) 44 rush 143 pass
11. 14-38 (L) 24 rush 267 pass
12. 3-28 (L) 19 rush 147 pass
13. 14-19 (L) 19 rush 156 pass
14. 10-38 (L) 21 rush 218 pass
15. 24-21(W) 62 rush 348 pass (OT)
16. 14-40 (L) 26 rush 211 pass
17. 41-22 (W) 67 rush 383 pass
18. 24-31 (L) 43 rush 224 pass
19. 17-21 (L) 39 rush 314 pass
20. 10-24 (L) -7 rush 227 pass

Unfortunately the projections only show Duke winning 3 of the 20 matchups or a winning percentage of 15%. The scoring average was Duke 17, GT 29 (rounded).

Observations: The game believes GT's run defense is very strong, limiting Duke to an average of 39 yards per game in the simulations. However, passing yards averaged out to 242 yards per simulated
game showing the yellow jackets are likely vulnerable in the air and Connette has the ability to make it happen. 6 of Duke's 17 losses were by a Touchdown or less.

I'm really hoping my simulations are wrong and Duke can grab a few fumbles / INT's against the yellow jackets and start 3-0!

LET'S GO DUKE!!!

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Season History:

GAME------------VEGAS-------SIMULATED SPREAD--------ACTUAL SPREAD

Memphis(A)-------(-4)-----------------(-12)-----------------------(-14)
Ga. Tech(H)-------(+8)----------------(+12)-----------------------(-??)

We only need to win once.

Indeed we do!! And the simulations don't take into account the head coach which is heavily in Duke's favor every game.

chipslate wrote:Indeed we do!! And the simulations don't take into account the head coach which is heavily in Duke's favor every game.

Well, so much for this set of simulations .

Yeah, I wish the game had been closer. Although, in terms of the actual simulations, I'll start listing the Mode for each set of simulations. In this case it would've been 14-38 which was the actual final score. Next play, Blue Devils....