crazietalk.net

First of all, I admit I haven't even a "crude" idea of how the economics in this industry works. That said, I DO know a thing or two about humans.

Listening to the news tonight, I'm hearing that oil could be leaking into the gulf into August. It could be as bad if not worse than Valdez. Are they simply teeing things up here? Do we consumers need to brace ourself for the chaos that may arise if the oil industry and/or government choices to "leverage" this oil spill?

I really don't want to believe that and I admit ignorance. Any official word of "Crisis at the Pumps" will consumers into a panicked frenzy. I've seen it in Atlanta (nearly two years ago). It was awful.

-EarlJam

P.S. Also, not being disrespectful to the people who have lost their lives or the industries who have lost a ton of money because of this event. Far from it. Just genuinely curious about how it will affect consumers at the pump this summer.

Being that it is only one well, I don't expect prices to be affected much, unlike a hurricane where several rigs AND the refineries are shut down. I've read that prices are actually expected to fall this summer. The gulf states tourism and fishing industry, however, will take a major hit I bet.

Forecasts for oil/gas prices several months ago were right on target with prices expected to reach/exceed $3/gal by spring and we got real close, with some states actually exceeding that mark. More recent forecasts are what CB&B said with prices expected to stabilize about current levels, if not drop a bit more. Prices will certainly drop more slowly than they rose (ahem). Crude oil peaked about $85/barrel about 4-6 weeks ago and today dropped to $70/barrel. Watch prices skyrocket if we have 1 major hurricane that does major damage in the gulf and/or to the gulf coast refineries/pipelines. I think the spill will have little consequence to oil/gas prices but huge effects on seafood prices as CB&B also said.

Yup. Watch out for those shrimp prices.

DukeUsul wrote:Yup. Watch out for those shrimp prices.

Come to the beach, buy local, save $.

CameronBornAndBred wrote:

DukeUsul wrote:Yup. Watch out for those shrimp prices.

Come to the beach, buy local, save $.

OK, we'll be there for the Memorial Day weekend...

Oops, better keep it on topic. I also heard there is an outside chance some of that spill/leak makes its way up the Atlantic coast via the Gulf Stream.

devildeac wrote:Forecasts for oil/gas prices several months ago were right on target with prices expected to reach/exceed $3/gal by spring and we got real close, with some states actually exceeding that mark. More recent forecasts are what CB&B said with prices expected to stabilize about current levels, if not drop a bit more. Prices will certainly drop more slowly than they rose (ahem). Crude oil peaked about $85/barrel about 4-6 weeks ago and today dropped to $70/barrel. Watch prices skyrocket if we have 1 major hurricane that does major damage in the gulf and/or to the gulf coast refineries/pipelines. I think the spill will have little consequence to oil/gas prices but huge effects on seafood prices as CB&B also said.

This is awesome, thanks. Just want to be clear that I was not bringing up possible rational effects brought upon by causes as they are in fact. I was only talking about the "human factor." Yes, conspiracy and No, I don't believe the conspiracy theory....but I do entertain it and don't totally dismiss it.

In other words, to your point about a major Hurricane, is it possible that in a board room somewhere, heads could collaborate to basically (and I do mean "basically"),say "Look, with hurricane Fabio, we have a fabulous chance at spinning the oil crisis and the hurricane together to increase revenue. Let's just say that, while it was only one leak, the Gulf Stream (carrying the spill into travel vectors) and rescue efforts seriously impeded the entire logistics chain for getting oil back to the mainland, and add Fabio, WHEW! We must raise prices!"

I really don't want to believe that though.

-EarlJam

P.S. Rabbits are plotting to destroy us all.

The wholesale price of unleaded gas, called the "RBOB" on the CNBC ticker, has dropped from $2.42 3 weeks ago to $2.05 today. If this price holds, gas prices should be in the $2.55 to $2.60/gallon range in a couple or three weeks in the
Raleigh area. Our cheapest gas runs 50 to 60 cents/gallon over the RBOB with the 3 week time delay coming down (but less than a week delay when prices rise).

CameronBornAndBred wrote:

DukeUsul wrote:Yup. Watch out for those shrimp prices.

Come to the beach, buy local, save $.

Better hope that spill doesn't hit the Gulf Loop Current (and gets carried up the Atlantic Coast):
http://www.examiner.com/x-30794-Chicago ... ey-West-FL
Tar balls have hit Key West; hopefully the spill won't wash up on the Atlantic side.

Lavabe wrote:

CameronBornAndBred wrote:

DukeUsul wrote:Yup. Watch out for those shrimp prices.

Come to the beach, buy local, save $.

Better hope that spill doesn't hit the Gulf Loop Current (and gets carried up the Atlantic Coast):
http://www.examiner.com/x-30794-Chicago ... ey-West-FL
Tar balls have hit Key West; hopefully the spill won't wash up on the Atlantic side.

Tar balls.

We should dispose of them by placing them in Tar Holes.

EarlJam wrote: This is awesome, thanks. Just want to be clear that I was not bringing up possible rational effects brought upon by causes as they are in fact. I was only talking about the "human factor." Yes, conspiracy and No, I don't believe the conspiracy theory....but I do entertain it and don't totally dismiss it.

In other words, to your point about a major Hurricane, is it possible that in a board room somewhere, heads could collaborate to basically (and I do mean "basically"),say "Look, with hurricane Fabio, we have a fabulous chance at spinning the oil crisis and the hurricane together to increase revenue. Let's just say that, while it was only one leak, the Gulf Stream (carrying the spill into travel vectors) and rescue efforts seriously impeded the entire logistics chain for getting oil back to the mainland, and add Fabio, WHEW! We must raise prices!"

I really don't want to believe that though.

-EarlJam

P.S. Rabbits are plotting to destroy us all.

I'm not sure a major hurricane, or even a minor one, is beneficial to the oil industry. If rigs and refineries are damaged, and they will be in a major hurricane, the oil companies have to spend money to make repairs on all the equipment. They could pass the cost on to consumers, however I don't think they would actually profit from a hurricane.

Tar Balls. Something the Heels lacked all season.

-EJ

Lavabe wrote:

CameronBornAndBred wrote:

DukeUsul wrote:Yup. Watch out for those shrimp prices.

Come to the beach, buy local, save $.

Better hope that spill doesn't hit the Gulf Loop Current (and gets carried up the Atlantic Coast):
http://www.examiner.com/x-30794-Chicago ... ey-West-FL
Tar balls have hit Key West; hopefully the spill won't wash up on the Atlantic side.

Too late.

Oil is already in the loop current. Local fisherman and fishing charters are reporting oil in the southern gulf on FLs west coast - and of course tar balls in the Keys.

Get your Atlantic shrimp while you can.....

EarlJam wrote:Tar Balls. Something the Heels lacked all season.

-EJ

I prefer tarballs over zip, but that's a totally different topic.

0101011101101111011100100110010000101110

Miles wrote:

EarlJam wrote:Tar Balls. Something the Heels lacked all season.

-EJ

I prefer tarballs over zip, but that's a totally different topic.

0101011101101111011100100110010000101110

Tm90IHRoaXMgc2hpdCBhZ2Fpbi4uLg==

CathyCA wrote:

Lavabe wrote:

CameronBornAndBred wrote:Come to the beach, buy local, save $.

Better hope that spill doesn't hit the Gulf Loop Current (and gets carried up the Atlantic Coast):
http://www.examiner.com/x-30794-Chicago ... ey-West-FL
Tar balls have hit Key West; hopefully the spill won't wash up on the Atlantic side.

Tar balls.

We should dispose of them by placing them in Tar Holes.

I am really glad I had my sip of coffee a minute ago BEFORE reading this or I'd be on the phone with my warranty comapany to replace the screen on my laptop.

windsor wrote:

Lavabe wrote:Better hope that spill doesn't hit the Gulf Loop Current (and gets carried up the Atlantic Coast):
http://www.examiner.com/x-30794-Chicago ... ey-West-FL
Tar balls have hit Key West; hopefully the spill won't wash up on the Atlantic side.

Too late.

Oil is already in the loop current. Local fisherman and fishing charters are reporting oil in the southern gulf on FLs west coast - and of course tar balls in the Keys.

Get your Atlantic shrimp while you can.....

I should have figured that the Tar Balls are traveling. ;)

Lavabe wrote:

windsor wrote:

Lavabe wrote:Better hope that spill doesn't hit the Gulf Loop Current (and gets carried up the Atlantic Coast):
http://www.examiner.com/x-30794-Chicago ... ey-West-FL
Tar balls have hit Key West; hopefully the spill won't wash up on the Atlantic side.

Too late.

Oil is already in the loop current. Local fisherman and fishing charters are reporting oil in the southern gulf on FLs west coast - and of course tar balls in the Keys.

Get your Atlantic shrimp while you can.....

I should have figured that the Tar Balls are traveling. ;)

Only Hanstravel...

Now almost 20% of the Gulf is closed to fishing.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has shut down fishing in a 45,728-square-mile section of the Gulf of Mexico, NOAA administrator Jane Lubchenco said Tuesday.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/05/18/gulf.o ... 1&iref=BN1

I should have figured that the Tar Balls are traveling. ;)[/quote]
Only Hanstravel... [/quote]



Just about spit wine all over my laptop....