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RPI
Posted: January 25th, 2010, 1:10 am
by Jesus_hurley
Some numbers to toss around:
http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_123_Men.html
RPI: 3
SOS: 5
Projected record: 28-3, 14-2
UNC-CH's info
http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_127_Men.html
RPI: 70
SOS: 15
Projected record: 18-13, 7-9
If they really do end up at 18-13 and then were to happen to lose their first ACC tourney game, do they get in to the NCAA?
Re: RPI
Posted: January 25th, 2010, 7:56 am
by devildeac
Interesting speculation.
I have a small wager we won't go 28-3, 14-2.
I have another smaller wager
they won't go 18-13, 7-9, though they should and deserve to wallow. Too many dishonest acc refs to let them lose THAT many games. But, if they do, they won't be in the NCAA tourney.
Re: RPI
Posted: January 25th, 2010, 9:24 am
by wilson
devildeac wrote:I have a small wager we won't go 28-3, 14-2.
I have another smaller wager they won't go 18-13, 7-9, though they should and deserve to wallow. Too many dishonest acc refs to let them lose THAT many games. But, if they do, they won't be in the NCAA tourney.
I agree with dd's assessment that Duke won't win out and carolina won't go 18-13, though I don't think it's terribly unlikely for the latter to happen. If they do finish with that record & lose in the ACC tourney 1st round, they will not make the NCAAs. If they should happen to win more than 18 games, I disagree that it would be because of ACC refs. We really need to stop with that meme if we're going to take exception to its application to our own team.
Re: RPI
Posted: January 25th, 2010, 12:17 pm
by Lavabe
I believe that the strength of the Big East and Big Twelve will force many conferences to have fewer teams in the field of 64+1. For example, the Big East figures to have Georgetown, Syracuse, Villanova, Pitt, WVU, the Victs, and at least one of the following: St. John's, Seton Hall, Louisville, and Marquette.
I.e., I would be surprised if the ACC got more than four teams in the field; I suspect it will be three teams.
I.e., there's VERY little room for the Holes, if they continue with their current lack of success.
Re: RPI
Posted: January 25th, 2010, 1:25 pm
by wilson
Lavabe wrote:I believe that the strength of the Big East and Big Twelve will force many conferences to have fewer teams in the field of 64+1. For example, the Big East figures to have Georgetown, Syracuse, Villanova, Pitt, WVU, the Victs, and at least one of the following: St. John's, Seton Hall, Louisville, and Marquette.
This will be counteracted somewhat by the fact that there's no way the Pac-10 gets more than two teams in. The Big Televen and the SEC certainly aren't any stronger than the ACC, so it stands to reason that an ACC squad or two will benefit.
Lavabe wrote:I.e., I would be surprised if the ACC got more than four teams in the field; I suspect it will be three teams.
I'll take that action at 5-1. NO WAY the ACC gets limited to three teams. Five easy, likely six.
Lavabe wrote:I.e., there's VERY little room for the Holes, if they continue with their current lack of success.
Agreed.
That said, I still expect the heels to rebound somewhat. If they finish 8-8 in the ACC, with a couple of big wins sprinkled in (say, one vs. Duke in chapel hell *gulp*), I bet they get in, especially if they can get a win on Friday at the ACC tournament (that is, if they're not playing on Thursday ;) ).
Re: RPI
Posted: January 25th, 2010, 2:19 pm
by Jesus_hurley
Kenpom is much rougher on UNC-CH
http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=North%20Carolina
16-15, 5-11. Lots of long losing streaks.
Not sure what's up with ours:
http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke
We are predicted to go 26-5, 12-4
I had to find the fine print:
Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the individual game predictions.
Re: RPI
Posted: January 25th, 2010, 2:33 pm
by CameronBornAndBred
Jesus_hurley wrote:
We are predicted to go 26-5, 12-4
We are now 16-3, 4-2. So Kenpom's predicition is that we lose two more ACC games, and that's it. They just crowned us the national champs, wooooohoooooo! (ACC tourney champs too)
ratfarts..they are only talking about regular season.
Re: RPI
Posted: January 25th, 2010, 3:02 pm
by Jesus_hurley
CameronBornAndBred wrote:Jesus_hurley wrote:
We are predicted to go 26-5, 12-4
We are now 16-3, 4-2. So Kenpom's predicition is that we lose two more ACC games, and that's it. They just crowned us the national champs, wooooohoooooo! (ACC tourney champs too)
ratfarts..they are only talking about regular season.
Not that I put a lot of stock in it, but I love the string of L's in the predicted outcome on UNC-CH's page
