The Political Junkie Thread

[CameronBornAndBred]

Collins bitching about Gorsuch and Kavanaugh is laughable. At least it would be if it weren't so infuriating. Squee for the win, lady.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/susan-collin ... 03085.html

[OPK]

If this apparent draft opinion is adopted as the majority, expect a hellacious state election cycle this fall across the country.

Because we need more chaos, rancor and division right now.

Do you expect it not to be? Alito and Thomas are obvious, and I'd give really good odds that the 3 Trump appointees will also.

Supposedly this leak is unprecedented. You're an attorney, any ideas on why there was this break in protocol? An angry clerk?

No idea who leaked but doubt it will take long to track down. And while there have been leaks in the past (rarely), never a whole draft opinion. This is really a huge breach of trust and protocol.

Could be a clerk. Could be a justice. Could be a secretary. Could be someone in the print office.

As to your original question — I would not be shocked if this is the final opinion but votes can change. And the rationale in this draft opinion is stunning in scope despite the effort to limit it just to abortion. If you are a libertarian, this draft opinion should scare you regardless of your views on abortion.

[dudog]

If this apparent draft opinion is adopted as the majority, expect a hellacious state election cycle this fall across the country.

Because we need more chaos, rancor and division right now.

Do you expect it not to be? Alito and Thomas are obvious, and I'd give really good odds that the 3 Trump appointees will also.

Supposedly this leak is unprecedented. You're an attorney, any ideas on why there was this break in protocol? An angry clerk?

No idea who leaked but doubt it will take long to track down. And while there have been leaks in the past (rarely), never a whole draft opinion. This is really a huge breach of trust and protocol.

Could be a clerk. Could be a justice. Could be a secretary. Could be someone in the print office.

As to your original question — I would not be shocked if this is the final opinion but votes can change. And the rationale in this draft opinion is stunning in scope despite the effort to limit it just to abortion. If you are a libertarian, this draft opinion should scare you regardless of your views on abortion.

My first reaction was that it was a liberal leak. From what I've read, most think it's a conservative leak to keep the 5 from waffling. I expect Kavanaugh is the weakest link. And really, what would be the reason for the liberals to leak it, all it does from their perspective is lessen the bombshell when it drops within the next 8 weeks.

[OPK]

^^ I’m betting we know soon enough. It’s a small group.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

^^ I’m betting we know soon enough. It’s a small group.

I want all of the Republicans who are calling for the guillotine (I am exaggerating a bit) for whoever leaked it to be on the record with that and apply their angst if it turns out to be a Republican leaker. Dems often go overboard in self-policing (though they are also far from perfect) while Republicans are great at creating excuses. Situational ethics...

I really should know this but I assume that Politico cannot be forced to reveal its source?

[dudog]

^^ I’m betting we know soon enough. It’s a small group.

I want all of the Republicans who are calling for the guillotine (I am exaggerating a bit) for whoever leaked it to be on the record with that and apply their angst if it turns out to be a Republican leaker. Dems often go overboard in self-policing (though they are also far from perfect) while Republicans are great at creating excuses. Situational ethics...

I really should know this but I assume that Politico cannot be forced to reveal its source?

There is no law against leaking this draft, so really no pressure that can be brought to bear. No national security concerns, for example. But it's against the norms. You know, because norms have been sacrosanct the past few years.

[OPK]

I really should know this but I assume that Politico cannot be forced to reveal its source?

Reporters have a limited First Amendment right to keep sources confidential, and many states have additions “shield” laws to protect reporters. Having said that, I have seen reporters jailed for contempt when matters of national security or criminal (felony) activities are involved.

[CameronBornAndBred]

My first reaction was that it was a liberal leak. From what I've read, most think it's a conservative leak to keep the 5 from waffling. I expect Kavanaugh is the weakest link. And really, what would be the reason for the liberals to leak it, all it does from their perspective is lessen the bombshell when it drops within the next 8 weeks.

Regardless of who leaked it, the Dems are now fired up, just as primary voting gets underway. And there are quite a few GOP voters that may rethink their choices as well. As I stated, it's been long shown that RVW support is in the majority in this country, regardless of political affiliation. So it does quite a bit more than "lessen the bombshell". As I posted above, if the economy weren't in such shambles, this would now be the driving issue of the mid-terms, just as health-care has been in the past.

[OPK]

Anything that shifts the discussion from the economy is a key positive for Dems and a net loss for Reps.

[dudog]

This was posted by a friend on facebook (yes, it does have some uses):

I'm not pro-murdering babies.
I'm pro-Becky who found out at her 20 week anatomy scan that the infant she had been so excited to bring into this world had developed without life sustaining organs.
I'm pro-Susan who was sexually assaulted on her way home from work, only to come to the horrific realization that her assailant planted his seed in her when she got a positive pregnancy test result a month later.
I'm pro-Theresa who hemorrhaged due to a placental abruption, causing her parents, spouse, and children to have to make the impossible decision on whether to save her or her unborn child.
I'm pro-little Cathy who had her innocence ripped away from her by someone she should have been able to trust and her 11 year old body isn't mature enough to bear the consequence of that betrayal.
I'm pro-Melissa who's working two jobs just to make ends meet and has to choose between bringing another child into poverty or feeding the children she already has because her spouse walked out on her.
I'm pro-Brittany who realizes that she is in no way financially, emotionally, or physically able to raise a child.
I'm pro-Emily who went through IVF, ending up with SIX viable implanted eggs requiring selective reduction in order to ensure the safety of her and a SAFE amount of fetuses.
I'm pro-Christina who doesn't want to be a mother, but birth control methods sometimes fail.
I'm pro-Jessica who is FINALLY getting the strength to get away from her physically abusive spouse only to find out that she is carrying the monster's child.
I'm pro-Vanessa who went into her confirmation appointment after YEARS of trying to conceive only to hear silence where there should be a heartbeat.
I'm pro-Lindsay who lost her virginity in her sophomore year with a broken condom and now has to choose whether to be a teenage mom or just a teenager.
I'm pro-Courtney who just found out she's already 13 weeks along, but the egg never made it out of her fallopian tube so either she terminates the pregnancy or risks dying from internal bleeding.
You can argue and say that I'm pro-choice all you want, but the truth is:
I'm pro-life.
Their lives.
Women's lives.
You don't get to pick and choose which scenarios should be accepted.
Women's rights are meant to protect ALL women, regardless of their situation!

[CameronBornAndBred]

This was posted by a friend on facebook (yes, it does have some uses):

I'm not pro-murdering babies.

Letting this stand of course, since that's what we do here, but I'm encouraging any participants to leave the abortion debate on Twitter and Facebook and keep this thread to politics. Discussing the impact of the upcoming SCOTUS decision on the political stage is more than welcome, but let's not debate the decision itself.

[CameronBornAndBred]

The Ultra-Right moves on in Ohio. Another QAnon believer, and Jan 6th participant has won his primary. Thankfully he's going up against a long term opponent in the general.

A Republican candidate for the U.S. House in Ohio who has promoted the conspiracy theory QAnon and attended the Jan. 6 “Stop The Steal” rally in Washington, D.C., won his primary Tuesday night.

J.R. Majewski, an Air Force veteran and political newcomer, won in a crowded field to advance to a November race against long-time Democratic incumbent Rep. Marcy Kaptur, the longest-serving woman in House history.

He will face Kaptur, a Democrat who has served in Congress since first winning her seat in 1982. She’s a member of the House Appropriations Committee, serving as the chairwoman of the Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development.

Kaptur has won by comfortable margins in recent races in what had been a safely Democratic seat.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ohio-house-r ... 03136.html

[dudog]

I have been given clearance to post this. I think because given what is going on in the Texas legislature and elsewhere (copycat laws), this 1-minute video is not far-fetched.

https://twitter.com/AdamParkhomenko/sta ... 7591908353

[CrazyNotCrazie]

The Ultra-Right moves on in Ohio. Another QAnon believer, and Jan 6th participant has won his primary. Thankfully he's going up against a long term opponent in the general.

A Republican candidate for the U.S. House in Ohio who has promoted the conspiracy theory QAnon and attended the Jan. 6 “Stop The Steal” rally in Washington, D.C., won his primary Tuesday night.

J.R. Majewski, an Air Force veteran and political newcomer, won in a crowded field to advance to a November race against long-time Democratic incumbent Rep. Marcy Kaptur, the longest-serving woman in House history.

He will face Kaptur, a Democrat who has served in Congress since first winning her seat in 1982. She’s a member of the House Appropriations Committee, serving as the chairwoman of the Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development.

Kaptur has won by comfortable margins in recent races in what had been a safely Democratic seat.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ohio-house-r ... 03136.html

Over 21,000 people voted for this clown. Unbelievable. I still wish someone would adopt my plan that before anyone can vote, they have to say whether or not they think the 2020 election was stolen. If they say it was, no vote for you.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Over 21,000 people voted for this clown. Unbelievable. I still wish someone would adopt my plan that before anyone can vote, they have to say whether or not they think the 2020 election was stolen. If they say it was, no vote for you.

I'd be good with them just having to show a passing report card from a 7th grade civics course.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Over 21,000 people voted for this clown. Unbelievable. I still wish someone would adopt my plan that before anyone can vote, they have to say whether or not they think the 2020 election was stolen. If they say it was, no vote for you.

I'd be good with them just having to show a passing report card from a 7th grade civics course.

I met my 6th grader's social studies teacher for the first time earlier this week at a school fundraiser. He is early-mid 40s, definitely supports the good guys (I'm guessing 90+% of the school supports the good guys - it is an NYC public school). It was interesting talking to him about trying to teach social studies in a relatively non-partisan way these days, and also how important it is, and how different it is from when he and I were kids. There is an increased emphasis on primary sources, verifying the credibility of those sources, etc.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I met my 6th grader's social studies teacher for the first time earlier this week at a school fundraiser. He is early-mid 40s, definitely supports the good guys (I'm guessing 90+% of the school supports the good guys - it is an NYC public school). It was interesting talking to him about trying to teach social studies in a relatively non-partisan way these days, and also how important it is, and how different it is from when he and I were kids. There is an increased emphasis on primary sources, verifying the credibility of those sources, etc.

Cool story. I wonder how hard it would be to teach in a "relatively non-partisan way". I hope it wouldn't be! At least not at that age. I remember getting the gist of politics early on, but I didn't think the world was coming to an end when Nixon resigned, nor when Carter got trounced.

And all of that happened before I took my civics course. (I do think that was 7th grade, so early-mid 80s).

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I met my 6th grader's social studies teacher for the first time earlier this week at a school fundraiser. He is early-mid 40s, definitely supports the good guys (I'm guessing 90+% of the school supports the good guys - it is an NYC public school). It was interesting talking to him about trying to teach social studies in a relatively non-partisan way these days, and also how important it is, and how different it is from when he and I were kids. There is an increased emphasis on primary sources, verifying the credibility of those sources, etc.

Cool story. I wonder how hard it would be to teach in a "relatively non-partisan way". I hope it wouldn't be! At least not at that age. I remember getting the gist of politics early on, but I didn't think the world was coming to an end when Nixon resigned, nor when Carter got trounced.

And all of that happened before I took my civics course. (I do think that was 7th grade, so early-mid 80s).

I think it is very hard to teach in a non-partisan way. You are inevitably going to anger someone. My uncle was a very liberal middle school social studies teacher for many years in a community that largely shared his tendencies, but I know he struggled not to inject his views. I have found some of my son's teachers to be a bit preachy for my taste - in my community, as a moderate Democrat at times I am sometimes viewed as being to the right of Alito.

I think I was too oblivious to notice if my teachers showed any bias. I took AP US History my junior year of HS (in the early 90s) and I recall a friend who was more aware than I was calling our teacher "Red Jack" because he was basically a communist and spent a disproportionate amount of time focusing on the labor movements and such. And in hindsight, I think some of my Econ professors at Duke also showed their biases in emphasizing some theories over others.

All this being said, I think the latest Republican obsession with what is being taught in schools is being used more as a political rallying cry for them then something they actually care about. Birds of a feather flock together, and I think that most of the places where more progressive ideas are being taught are those with a very progressive population. I have repeatedly said that for Republicans, it seems to be all about winning and "beating the libs" so if this helps them to do that, they will go with it.

[CameronBornAndBred]

A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll, one of the first to be conducted entirely after the leak of Justice Samuel Alito’s controversial draft opinion, suggests that Republicans risk overplaying their hand on abortion ahead of the 2022 midterms — and that Democrats could benefit if the hot-button issue is on the ballot.
The survey of 1,577 U.S. adults, which was conducted from May 3 to May 6, found that registered voters initially preferred a generic Democrat (44%) over a generic Republican (39%) by 5 percentage points when asked how they would vote in their district if the congressional election were being held today.

Mostly "Well, duh" there, but I still don't think it's going to overcome economic issues. As always, "It's the economy, Stupid", and in any other year, that might get tested, but we are truly in an impressive inflationary hole that hasn't been seen in 4 decades.
That being said, Dems are going to try their hardest to make 2022 ALLL about abortion rights, while Republicans will be showcasing gas prices and supply shortages. (Regardless of why those last two actually exist.)

https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-poll-rev ... 41999.html

[CrazyNotCrazie]

A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll, one of the first to be conducted entirely after the leak of Justice Samuel Alito’s controversial draft opinion, suggests that Republicans risk overplaying their hand on abortion ahead of the 2022 midterms — and that Democrats could benefit if the hot-button issue is on the ballot.
The survey of 1,577 U.S. adults, which was conducted from May 3 to May 6, found that registered voters initially preferred a generic Democrat (44%) over a generic Republican (39%) by 5 percentage points when asked how they would vote in their district if the congressional election were being held today.

Mostly "Well, duh" there, but I still don't think it's going to overcome economic issues. As always, "It's the economy, Stupid", and in any other year, that might get tested, but we are truly in an impressive inflationary hole that hasn't been seen in 4 decades.
That being said, Dems are going to try their hardest to make 2022 ALLL about abortion rights, while Republicans will be showcasing gas prices and supply shortages. (Regardless of why those last two actually exist.)

https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-poll-rev ... 41999.html

I agree - I unfortunately don't think this will move the needle for most people. Plus I have very little faith in the Democrats to effectively spin this and control the narrative - Republicans are so much better at this. I really hope that Democrats are mobilizing and strategizing in key districts/states and tailoring messaging to those specific areas.

National Democrats need to recognize that it is a very diverse party and what appeals in AOC's district does not appeal in a very purple district, and vice versa. So when someone like Warren comes out and makes a bold statement about something, it might help in some places, but it can really hurt elsewhere. I do not envy Biden's job trying to manage all of this.