The Political Junkie Thread

[OPK]

Another old white guy announced that he's running today. He's got a chance, though.

Certainly depends on who he faces next autumn. Rs seemed determined to nominate their least electable candidate. But it’s way early.

(That presumes a two-way race. I think the advantage flips to Trump if there is a strong third party candidate a la Perot).

[CameronBornAndBred]

I have to go back to 2012 to find the last time that I voted for a candidate instead of voting against someone. This election is setting up to be no different.

[CameronBornAndBred]

“The last thing this country needs is a Donald Trump or some other right-wing demagogue who is going to try to undermine American democracy or take away a woman’s right to choose, or not address the crisis of gun violence, or racism, sexism or homophobia,” Sanders said in an interview. “So, I’m in to do what I can to make sure that the president is reelected.”

And thus Bernie Sanders guarantees that he won't lose his third POTUS bid in a row.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/sen-bernie-s ... 44988.html

[CameronBornAndBred]

Ex Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson jumped in the POTUS race today. He seems sane enough, and if he can get past Trump in the primaries he would have an excellent chance of defeating Biden.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/26/politics ... index.html

[Phredd3]

Well, North Carolina is officially no longer a democracy. That link is NYT. If you're paywalled out, try here instead.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Well, North Carolina is officially no longer a democracy. That link is NYT. If you're paywalled out, try here instead.

All down to this.

North Carolina's high court had previously ruled against a congressional map drawn by Republican state lawmakers for violating the state's constitution. But after Republican justices took over the court's majority following last year's midterm elections, the court decided to hear the case again.

That made this case especially messy because it's already been heard at the U.S. Supreme Court, as Moore v. Harper. The court now may end up throwing out the case.

[Phredd3]

Well, North Carolina is officially no longer a democracy. That link is NYT. If you're paywalled out, try here instead.

All down to this.

North Carolina's high court had previously ruled against a congressional map drawn by Republican state lawmakers for violating the state's constitution. But after Republican justices took over the court's majority following last year's midterm elections, the court decided to hear the case again.

That made this case especially messy because it's already been heard at the U.S. Supreme Court, as Moore v. Harper. The court now may end up throwing out the case.

Moore v. Harper basically said, "It's up to the state to decide." I don't see anything here that would cause SCOTUS to change that ruling. once the Supreme Court punted like that, this was nearly inevitable. And now my vote is no longer fairly counted at the state level or in the U.S. House. If the election isn't state-wide, my vote counts less.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Well, North Carolina is officially no longer a democracy. That link is NYT. If you're paywalled out, try here instead.

All down to this.

North Carolina's high court had previously ruled against a congressional map drawn by Republican state lawmakers for violating the state's constitution. But after Republican justices took over the court's majority following last year's midterm elections, the court decided to hear the case again.

That made this case especially messy because it's already been heard at the U.S. Supreme Court, as Moore v. Harper. The court now may end up throwing out the case.

Moore v. Harper basically said, "It's up to the state to decide." I don't see anything here that would cause SCOTUS to change that ruling. once the Supreme Court punted like that, this was nearly inevitable. And now my vote is no longer fairly counted at the state level or in the U.S. House. If the election isn't state-wide, my vote counts less.

How often are judicial elections? I guess your best option is to try to flip the court back and get the ruling reversed again?

The Dems have to stop being nice guys. Gerrymandering seems to be how the game is played, so they have to play by the new rules. The dumb judges in my state (NY) decided to be nice guys and overruled a gerrymandered map strongly in favor of the Democrats so the Republicans picked up a few extra seats. That can't happen. Don't bring a knife to a gun fight.

[Phredd3]

The Dems have to stop being nice guys. Gerrymandering seems to be how the game is played, so they have to play by the new rules. The dumb judges in my state (NY) decided to be nice guys and overruled a gerrymandered map strongly in favor of the Democrats so the Republicans picked up a few extra seats. That can't happen. Don't bring a knife to a gun fight.

I completely, 100% disagree with this. If both sides agree that gerrymandering is OK, then we've lost democracy. Elections are about doing the will of the people, not doing the will of the legislature. If North Carolina gerrymanders, it solves nothing by getting New York to gerrymander. It just means we've lost democratic rule in two places instead of just one. Democrats MUST hold the high ground here. Gerrymanders are the tool of autocracy. Gerrymanders must be rejected at all times, by everyone.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

The Dems have to stop being nice guys. Gerrymandering seems to be how the game is played, so they have to play by the new rules. The dumb judges in my state (NY) decided to be nice guys and overruled a gerrymandered map strongly in favor of the Democrats so the Republicans picked up a few extra seats. That can't happen. Don't bring a knife to a gun fight.

I completely, 100% disagree with this. If both sides agree that gerrymandering is OK, then we've lost democracy. Elections are about doing the will of the people, not doing the will of the legislature. If North Carolina gerrymanders, it solves nothing by getting New York to gerrymander. It just means we've lost democratic rule in two places instead of just one. Democrats MUST hold the high ground here. Gerrymanders are the tool of autocracy. Gerrymanders must be rejected at all times, by everyone.

I absolutely, totally despise gerrymandering. 25+ years ago I wrote a series of memos for a public policy class at Duke about gerrymandering and the issues with it - there was at least one horribly drawn district in NC that was built for this purpose. But I just don't see a better answer. I am usually strongly in favor of trying to take the high road. But at this point it just seems like a recipe for disaster. Once gerrymandering is implemented, it builds on itself and becomes incredibly difficult to unwind. The Republicans are ruthless and their sole purpose is to beat the Democrats, not to implement a political agenda of any sort. This is just another example of them doing so.

[Phredd3]

I absolutely, totally despise gerrymandering. 25+ years ago I wrote a series of memos for a public policy class at Duke about gerrymandering and the issues with it - there was at least one horribly drawn district in NC that was built for this purpose. But I just don't see a better answer. I am usually strongly in favor of trying to take the high road. But at this point it just seems like a recipe for disaster. Once gerrymandering is implemented, it builds on itself and becomes incredibly difficult to unwind. The Republicans are ruthless and their sole purpose is to beat the Democrats, not to implement a political agenda of any sort. This is just another example of them doing so.

Somebody has to be first to disarm or the escalation will continue until democracy is dead. One side already doesn't support democracy, so our side has to.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I don't know if DeSantis is going to jump in or not, but I could see him deciding that this ain't the right year to try.

Things have gotten so bad for DeSantis that a recent Fox News poll shows him at 21% – comparable with the 19% that Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has pushed debunked conspiracy theories about vaccine safety, is receiving on the Democratic side.

DeSantis was at 28% in Fox’s February poll, 15 points behind Trump. The Florida governor’s support has dropped in the two Fox polls published since, and he now trails the former president by 32 points.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/30/politics ... index.html

[OPK]

I don't know if DeSantis is going to jump in or not, but I could see him deciding that this ain't the right year to try.

Things have gotten so bad for DeSantis that a recent Fox News poll shows him at 21% – comparable with the 19% that Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has pushed debunked conspiracy theories about vaccine safety, is receiving on the Democratic side.

DeSantis was at 28% in Fox’s February poll, 15 points behind Trump. The Florida governor’s support has dropped in the two Fox polls published since, and he now trails the former president by 32 points.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/30/politics ... index.html

Agreed. I just don’t think he has the stones to throw down with Trump. And fighting against Mickey Mouse can only carry you so far.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I don't know if DeSantis is going to jump in or not, but I could see him deciding that this ain't the right year to try.

Things have gotten so bad for DeSantis that a recent Fox News poll shows him at 21% – comparable with the 19% that Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has pushed debunked conspiracy theories about vaccine safety, is receiving on the Democratic side.

DeSantis was at 28% in Fox’s February poll, 15 points behind Trump. The Florida governor’s support has dropped in the two Fox polls published since, and he now trails the former president by 32 points.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/30/politics ... index.html

Agreed. I just don’t think he has the stones to throw down with Trump. And fighting against Mickey Mouse can only carry you so far.

Great column in today's NYT by David French about how DeSantis' attack of Mickey is likely breaking some big laws and he is opening himself up to a lot of problems. French is generally pretty far to the right of where I am but I really enjoy his writing - he is a very thoughtful, reasonable guy who is able to look at things without injecting too much of his own bias (we all have bias), and is honest about it when he does.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Enter Tim Scott. Or not.

Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina is nearly ready to reveal his decision on entering the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, saying Sunday that he would make an announcement on May 22.

How many times has a candidate announced three weeks in advance that they are having a presser to say they aren't running?
https://www.yahoo.com/news/tim-scott-se ... 07307.html

"After a few weeks of hand wringing and tough conversations with my family, I'm here to tell you today, 'fuck that'. Also, Donald J. Trump is my guy and should be yours, too."

[ArkieDukie]

I don't know if DeSantis is going to jump in or not, but I could see him deciding that this ain't the right year to try.


https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/30/politics ... index.html

Agreed. I just don’t think he has the stones to throw down with Trump. And fighting against Mickey Mouse can only carry you so far.

Great column in today's NYT by David French about how DeSantis' attack of Mickey is likely breaking some big laws and he is opening himself up to a lot of problems. French is generally pretty far to the right of where I am but I really enjoy his writing - he is a very thoughtful, reasonable guy who is able to look at things without injecting too much of his own bias (we all have bias), and is honest about it when he does.

I just read an article about his election commission that’s charging people with voting illegally. Most are convicted felons who thought they were cleared to vote and thus registered. There was an exception to the rule for sex offenders. Their registration was approved, so they voted. Asshole DeSatan created a special commission to hunt these people down and charge them with all sorts of felonies. He’s now doubling down and giving additional money to his new election commission.
Between this and Disney, DeSatan is a terrifying proposition and might even be worse than Trump.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Well this should be popcorn worthy.

Donald Trump will headline a CNN town hall on May 10 as a candidate – a strong signal that the battle for the 2024 presidential election is already getting underway.

The live event will take place at St. Anselm College in New Hampshire at 9 p.m. ET and will be moderated by CNN “This Morning” anchor Kaitlan Collins. The former president will take questions from Collins as well as New Hampshire Republicans and undeclared voters who say they intend to vote in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/don ... 14734.html

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Well this should be popcorn worthy.

Donald Trump will headline a CNN town hall on May 10 as a candidate – a strong signal that the battle for the 2024 presidential election is already getting underway.

The live event will take place at St. Anselm College in New Hampshire at 9 p.m. ET and will be moderated by CNN “This Morning” anchor Kaitlan Collins. The former president will take questions from Collins as well as New Hampshire Republicans and undeclared voters who say they intend to vote in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/don ... 14734.html

I wish I could be there to ask questions. And tell him he cannot leave the room until he gives decent answers.

Do you still think the 2020 election was "stolen?" If so, please provide names of credible sources that prove this.

Please look in the camera and tell evangelical voters exactly how many women you have slept with while married who were not your wife.

Please name all of your children and grandchildren.

Please provide very detailed plans for fixing the situation at the border, health care, Ukraine.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Well this should be popcorn worthy.

Donald Trump will headline a CNN town hall on May 10 as a candidate – a strong signal that the battle for the 2024 presidential election is already getting underway.

The live event will take place at St. Anselm College in New Hampshire at 9 p.m. ET and will be moderated by CNN “This Morning” anchor Kaitlan Collins. The former president will take questions from Collins as well as New Hampshire Republicans and undeclared voters who say they intend to vote in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/don ... 14734.html

I wish I could be there to ask questions. And tell him he cannot leave the room until he gives decent answers.

Do you still think the 2020 election was "stolen?" If so, please provide names of credible sources that prove this.

Please look in the camera and tell evangelical voters exactly how many women you have slept with while married who were not your wife.

Please name all of your children and grandchildren.

Please provide very detailed plans for fixing the situation at the border, health care, Ukraine.

I fully expect a large chunk of the night to be him talking about how 2020 was stolen from him. He's talked more about 2020 than he has about 2024.

[Phredd3]

I fully expect a large chunk of the night to be him talking about how 2020 was stolen from him. He's talked more about 2020 than he has about 2024.

And while I think he can potentially win the Republican nomination doing that (a sad state of affairs, but there you go), I don't think he's going to win back the presidency with that approach. I also think it's quite possible that Trump's big lead even among Republicans collapses well before the nomination as he gets back in the news and people realize they are tired of his shtick.