The Political Junkie Thread

[OPK]

Asa Hutchinson (current Arkansas Governor) met with advisors to discuss a possible run for the presidency. I’ve gotta say, he’s far more reasonable than others who are throwing their hat into the ring. From what I’ve observed, he’s pretty pragmatic. He is definitely better than DeSantis.
I chose this article because it mentions his experience aside from being Governor. I had forgotten all of it, but I think he could be an attractive candidate. This article also mentions that Tom Cotton has decided against running. That’s good news. He is as repulsive as Josh Hawley IMO.
https://www.4029tv.com/article/asa-hut ... t/41968138

Agree on all points.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Asa Hutchinson (current Arkansas Governor) met with advisors to discuss a possible run for the presidency. I’ve gotta say, he’s far more reasonable than others who are throwing their hat into the ring. From what I’ve observed, he’s pretty pragmatic. He is definitely better than DeSantis.
I chose this article because it mentions his experience aside from being Governor. I had forgotten all of it, but I think he could be an attractive candidate. This article also mentions that Tom Cotton has decided against running. That’s good news. He is as repulsive as Josh Hawley IMO.
https://www.4029tv.com/article/asa-hut ... t/41968138

Agree on all points.

I'm not against a Republican being in the White House, I'm against a person who uses fear and hate to get there. That's Trump, that's DeSantis, and it's definitely the likes of Hawley.
I'm sure the GOP would find that much of America agrees with me if they play smart through the primaries, but the fear and hate crowd is pretty loud.

[Phredd3]

11th Circuit vacates Judge Cannon’s appointment of a special master in the MAL document case, as expected. Slap-down of the judge too.

Indictment coming before Valentines Day?

Oh wow, that's awesome. I'm assuming they'll be appealing to the SCOTUS, but I can't picture an overturn (if they even give it the time of day) given recent history.

Yeah, probably will (1) ask the 11th Circuit to reconsider “en banc” (i.e. all the judges, not just this three judge panel); and (2) when that fails, ask SCOTUS to overturn. None of this will work.

So does the prohibition remain in place while the appeals are pursued? I lose track of which procedural posture does what and when, but I thought it was up to the court whether or not to stay it's own order pending appeal. On a beatdown of this magnitude, would they do that? Or am I missing a trick?

[OPK]

Oh wow, that's awesome. I'm assuming they'll be appealing to the SCOTUS, but I can't picture an overturn (if they even give it the time of day) given recent history.

Yeah, probably will (1) ask the 11th Circuit to reconsider “en banc” (i.e. all the judges, not just this three judge panel); and (2) when that fails, ask SCOTUS to overturn. None of this will work.

So does the prohibition remain in place while the appeals are pursued? I lose track of which procedural posture does what and when, but I thought it was up to the court whether or not to stay it's own order pending appeal. On a beatdown of this magnitude, would they do that? Or am I missing a trick?

My *understanding* is that the Court ordered the special master order to be vacated in seven days, which would require Trump to convince SCOTUS to stop it before then. (I think the Court is trying to stop Trump from just filing a motion for hearing en banc solely to delay things). If Trump files an emergency appeal and move to stay enforcement of the Eleventh Circuit’s order, it is possible that Thomas (to whom cases are directed here) could issue a temporary administrative stay but the case is ultimately a loser. If Thomas does that, it is NOT an indication of the likelihood of success on the merits or of bias IMO.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Asa Hutchinson (current Arkansas Governor) met with advisors to discuss a possible run for the presidency. I’ve gotta say, he’s far more reasonable than others who are throwing their hat into the ring. From what I’ve observed, he’s pretty pragmatic. He is definitely better than DeSantis.
I chose this article because it mentions his experience aside from being Governor. I had forgotten all of it, but I think he could be an attractive candidate. This article also mentions that Tom Cotton has decided against running. That’s good news. He is as repulsive as Josh Hawley IMO.
https://www.4029tv.com/article/asa-hut ... t/41968138

Very interesting - thanks for sharing. I honestly didn't know a lot about him so your post led me to do some research. As a moderate Dem, I find him more appealing than most of the others being mentioned as Republican candidates. He has clearly spoken out against the circus the Republican party has become, which is a big positive (and I think he did it before it has become more fashionable in recent weeks). I pretty strongly disagree with him on some core issues, but unlike a lot of top Republicans, he has not taken a "I am taking the hardline extreme approach on this, end of conversation" approach but rather seems at least somewhat willing to talk. Even after talking he is not getting to where I would like him to be, but he is closer than the others.

There are very few Republicans out there who don't have a lot of Trump stink on them. Pretty much every one in Congress or who served in the Trump administration has it. As much as he would like to claim otherwise, deSantis has it with his "I want to stick it to the libs" mentality. Hutchinson seems to have stayed above the fray, which is commendable. As of now that will also hurt him in terms of getting through a primary, but things change. He also turns 72 tomorrow which is not ideal, but makes him a spring chicken compared to Trump or Biden.

I am not a huge fan of the Warren/Bernie/AOC wing of the Democratic party and the right Republican could pull me across the aisle against one of them. I don't think Hutchinson is quite there, but I would have to hear more. I like some of the few remaining true moderate Republicans like Charlie Baker, but I doubt they would run.

[Phredd3]

Yeah, probably will (1) ask the 11th Circuit to reconsider “en banc” (i.e. all the judges, not just this three judge panel); and (2) when that fails, ask SCOTUS to overturn. None of this will work.

So does the prohibition remain in place while the appeals are pursued? I lose track of which procedural posture does what and when, but I thought it was up to the court whether or not to stay it's own order pending appeal. On a beatdown of this magnitude, would they do that? Or am I missing a trick?

My *understanding* is that the Court ordered the special master order to be vacated in seven days, which would require Trump to convince SCOTUS to stop it before then. (I think the Court is trying to stop Trump from just filing a motion for hearing en banc solely to delay things). If Trump files an emergency appeal and move to stay enforcement of the Eleventh Circuit’s order, it is possible that Thomas (to whom cases are directed here) could issue a temporary administrative stay but the case is ultimately a loser. If Thomas does that, it is NOT an indication of the likelihood of success on the merits or of bias IMO.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Do you live in South Carolina?

You could be first in line!! (This is actually pretty big in terms of election cycle shakeups.)

The rule-making arm of the Democratic National Committee on Friday voted to approve a proposal to drastically reshape the 2024 presidential nominating calendar and make South Carolina the first state to hold a primary, followed by Nevada and New Hampshire on the same day a few days later, and then Georgia and Michigan before Super Tuesday.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/02/politics ... index.html

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Do you live in South Carolina?

You could be first in line!! (This is actually pretty big in terms of election cycle shakeups.)

The rule-making arm of the Democratic National Committee on Friday voted to approve a proposal to drastically reshape the 2024 presidential nominating calendar and make South Carolina the first state to hold a primary, followed by Nevada and New Hampshire on the same day a few days later, and then Georgia and Michigan before Super Tuesday.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/02/politics ... index.html

It is a step in the right direction though I would have chosen a state that is a bit more purple than SC. I also think the primaries that I believe are generally winner takes all in terms of delegates should move to ranked choice voting, especially the earlier ones when there are a lot of candidates.

[ArkieDukie]

What’s up with the New Hampshire law that gives their SOS the right to reschedule their primary to make it the first one? That seems a bit presumptuous to me.

[CameronBornAndBred]

“A Massive Fraud of this type and magnitude allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution,”

--DJT

So there's that.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-calls- ... 56676.html

[CrazyNotCrazie]

“A Massive Fraud of this type and magnitude allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution,”

--DJT

So there's that.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-calls- ... 56676.html

I really, really, really hate whataboutism, but to me, anything that Hunter might have done is a drop in the bucket compared to what Trump and his family have done. So I don't really care. But I have a feeling that this is all that the House will be talking about for the next two years. Hunter should take a page out of the Trump playbook and stall and avoid.

But if we are throwing away or re-writing the constitution, let's modernize the second amendment, get rid of the electoral college, and make it so that Trump can't run for president again. And maybe include some language that if you are more loyal to Trump than the United States, you can't vote.

[CameronBornAndBred]

While it's not Trump himself on trial, today's verdict against the Trump Org doesn't bode well for when it is actually himself facing conviction.

Guilty on all counts of criminal tax fraud.

The jury found the two entities of the Trump Organization guilty as charged on all counts, including scheme to defraud, conspiracy, criminal tax fraud and falsifying business records.

The felony convictions carry fines totaling up to $1.7 million. But collateral consequences of a conviction may be more significant to Trump, who is seeking a second term in the White House. Banks could call in loans and business partners could cancel contracts if their internal policies prevent them from doing business with felons.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... b4e8d55e1b

[OPK]

While it's not Trump himself on trial, today's verdict against the Trump Org doesn't bode well for when it is actually himself facing conviction.

Guilty on all counts of criminal tax fraud.

The jury found the two entities of the Trump Organization guilty as charged on all counts, including scheme to defraud, conspiracy, criminal tax fraud and falsifying business records.

The felony convictions carry fines totaling up to $1.7 million. But collateral consequences of a conviction may be more significant to Trump, who is seeking a second term in the White House. Banks could call in loans and business partners could cancel contracts if their internal policies prevent them from doing business with felons.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... b4e8d55e1b

Sentencing set for January 13.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Sentencing set for January 13.

Full on melt down on his Truth app set for this evening.

[OPK]

Sanity prevails in Georgia.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Former President Donald Trump does not plan to appeal to the Supreme Court a lower court order that put an end to the special master review of documents seized from his Mar-a-Lago estate, a source familiar with the matter tells CNN.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/08/politics ... index.html

That's mildly surprising. I'm betting he pushed for it, and his lawyers pushed back, telling him after Cannon's special master appointment was shredded by the higher appeals court judges that the same would happen at the SCOTUS level. (If they had even bothered to take it up.)

[OPK]

Former President Donald Trump does not plan to appeal to the Supreme Court a lower court order that put an end to the special master review of documents seized from his Mar-a-Lago estate, a source familiar with the matter tells CNN.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/08/politics ... index.html

That's mildly surprising. I'm betting he pushed for it, and his lawyers pushed back, telling him after Cannon's special master appointment was shredded by the higher appeals court judges that the same would happen at the SCOTUS level. (If they had even bothered to take it up.)

Glad to hear, Cannon’s order was absurd.

[CameronBornAndBred]

The news of the day is Sinema's registration as an independent.
I'm curious to see what will happen in 2024; will the Dems back her or pile money to the winner of the primary?

[CrazyNotCrazie]

The news of the day is Sinema's registration as an independent.
I'm curious to see what will happen in 2024; will the Dems back her or pile money to the winner of the primary?

I'm glad she at least waited until she knew the Dems had the majority with or without her. As much as one is voting for the candidate, now one is increasingly voting for the party. If she said she is going to run as an independent next time, that is fine. But to change your party while in office seems like you are violating what the people voted for. No Republicans had the cajones to leave their party and become independent when it became clear that Trump was hijacking the party.

From what I have read, by the Dems going from 50-50 to 51-49, it gives them a lot more power over committees. Which makes absolutely no sense, but I will take it for now. I believe that this will not change that, though I am not totally sure.

[CameronBornAndBred]

From what I have read, by the Dems going from 50-50 to 51-49, it gives them a lot more power over committees. Which makes absolutely no sense, but I will take it for now. I believe that this will not change that, though I am not totally sure.

Yup, no change. Just as King and Sanders are independents, they are still aligned on the Blue side of the aisle. SInema has stated that she won't be caucusing with the Republicans, so the 51-49 split stands. I'm sure there are lots of eyes on Manchin now, as well, but I'm guessing he won't be changing his registration.

I think Sinema greatly enjoyed the power that she had as a Dem Senator on the fence, and was able to garner lots of attention her way when big votes came up. With the new majority, that sway is gone. I think that weighed into her choice now, perhaps hoping that she'll retain some of it.