Biden won, it's over --- The Election Thread

[fuse]

We are not the country I perceived us to be, or hoped we are.

[Nrrrrvous]

We are not the country I perceived us to be, or hoped we are.

Someone asked OY the question "What the Hell is going on?" That was my response to them...

Even if Biden somehow does pull off a miracle, come from behind finish (which I doubt). This rings so true.

[Wander]

People that suck.

• Nate Silver
  Nate Silver
  Nate Silver
  
  
  Also, Nate Silver

Don’t say that OY though! My last effort at broaching thus subject Monday was not well-received.

No argument from me anymore. The pollsters prattled on about how they made all these changes, so much so that if anything they were overcompensating and underestimating Biden. All complete nonsense. They are doing something fundamentally and consistently wrong.

[gumbomoop]

We are not the country I perceived us to be, or hoped we are.

This is intended to be a friendly amendment, about an admittedly touchy subject. I say friendly, as I infer that what dismays you dismays me as well. The touchy subject is the tens of millions of people who voted for Trump, the vast majority for a second time.

My friendly amendment is that it’s not exactly “the country” that disappoints, but “half the country.” In dozens of ways Trump has been a disaster. He is an ugly sociopath, foisting his sociopathy and smarmy narcissism onto our democracy in multiple ways, literally daily. To people with a longstanding understanding of what constitutes facts and the obvious, Trump rarely utters sentences that are both factual and accurate.

It’s unclear whether even half of his voters actually believe most of what he says. But their grievances, built up sullenly over years, lead them to believe Democrats are socialists, or that Trump is chosen by God, or that he’s a smart businessman, or that we should withdraw from the world, or that Trump has no responsibility for the depth of the pandemic.

This very morning, as it appears Biden might squeak out a victory, we hear that Biden and Dems will need to “learn how to talk to Trump’s base.” Although I do understand the sentiment, it will be a delicate task. Perhaps Biden and House Dems will be able to “talk” to some Trump voters by passing bills to create jobs. And if McConnell and Republicans rediscover their commitment to balanced budgets, then Biden needs to speak directly and frequently about Senate Repubs’ obstructionism. Biden/Dems need to be planning for 2022 immediately.

[Phredd3]

People that suck.

• Nate Silver
  Nate Silver
  Nate Silver
  
  
  Also, Nate Silver

I'm not sure Nate is the right target, although it is clear that his model no longer works. But the real problem is polling. How many "A+" pollsters were just flat, dead wrong? Nate's model is using traditional-valued polls, and it is pretty clear that at least half of America itself no longer has traditional values. It's time to scrap prediction methods that assume it does.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Going to try to stay sane today by not being in my office staring at news websites, but getting some painting prep for my upcoming show.

Art > Politics

[CrazyNotCrazie]

We are not the country I perceived us to be, or hoped we are.

This is intended to be a friendly amendment, about an admittedly touchy subject. I say friendly, as I infer that what dismays you dismays me as well. The touchy subject is the tens of millions of people who voted for Trump, the vast majority for a second time.

My friendly amendment is that it’s not exactly “the country” that disappoints, but “half the country.” In dozens of ways Trump has been a disaster. He is an ugly sociopath, foisting his sociopathy and smarmy narcissism onto our democracy in multiple ways, literally daily. To people with a longstanding understanding of what constitutes facts and the obvious, Trump rarely utters sentences that are both factual and accurate.

It’s unclear whether even half of his voters actually believe most of what he says. But their grievances, built up sullenly over years, lead them to believe Democrats are socialists, or that Trump is chosen by God, or that he’s a smart businessman, or that we should withdraw from the world, or that Trump has no responsibility for the depth of the pandemic.

This very morning, as it appears Biden might squeak out a victory, we hear that Biden and Dems will need to “learn how to talk to Trump’s base.” Although I do understand the sentiment, it will be a delicate task. Perhaps Biden and House Dems will be able to “talk” to some Trump voters by passing bills to create jobs. And if McConnell and Republicans rediscover their commitment to balanced budgets, then Biden needs to speak directly and frequently about Senate Repubs’ obstructionism. Biden/Dems need to be planning for 2022 immediately.

Very well put - thank you for your comments - I really enjoy your posts. To your point, I think that Biden (if hopefully elected) needs to work hard to bring the country together, but in his effort to build unity he cannot normalize the attitudes that Trump brought to the surface. Just because a lot of people have these warped values and perspectives doesn't make it OK. Apparently all of the unifying talk didn't seem to swing a ton of voters, but he has to continue that message.

There are a few ways he can differentiate himself. Have policies that help everyone. Through actions like eliminating the SALT deduction and making it clear that he was initially ignoring COVID because it was only impacting blue states, Trump made it clear that he was often only governing for the benefit of those who voted for him. Biden should focus on policies that raise all ships in all states.

Also, Dems have a reputation (somewhat deserved) of being snobby elitists who talk down to non-college educated people, particularly non-college educated white people. Given Biden's background, he is the right guy to overcome this. But again, he can achieve this but at least initially focusing on policies that help everyone - reducing/eliminating college debt is wonderful but those who don't want to go to college see it as taking their tax dollars to help others.

Assuming he stays majority leader, McConnell is going to really dig in his heals on all of this. His position has way too much power and he is obsessed with harnessing all of this power to make himself feel important. Biden will have to balance the art of compromise with PR campaigns against McConnell to get policies acted on. Otherwise they will just sit on McConnell's desk collecting dust. The fact that, as I understand it (correct me if I'm wrong) McConnell has so much power to determine what bills even get acted on is a huge miscarriage of justice and I highly doubt it was the intention of our founders. McConnell is now seated for six more years (hopefully his last six given he is 78) so he has no one to answer to unless other Republican senators really pressure him.

[gumbomoop]

Assuming he stays majority leader, McConnell is going to really dig in his heals on all of this. His position has way too much power and he is obsessed with harnessing all of this power to make himself feel important. Biden will have to balance the art of compromise with PR campaigns against McConnell to get policies acted on.

Yes, I and others (maybe you?!?!) have been discussing this OY. Assuming (not yet certain) Repubs keep Senate, we’ll see whether even a decent President can negotiate with indecent McConnell in a time of pandemic and economic catastrophe. And whether a few Senate Repubs will happily, or cautiously, work with Biden. I’m fairly or foolishly confident that we’ll get a jobs bill next spring.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I missed that we had a concession speech.

Kanye has let go and accepted defeat.

[Phredd3]

I missed that we had a concession speech.

Kanye has let go and accepted defeat.

We had one from Gideon, too. It still looked too close to call from where I look, but I'm sure her campaign had more complete information. Big news for the Senate mix, though. I can't see any reasonable way at this point that the Senate is not red. Mitch remains King.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Twenty Two EVs left to go. (If you follow a map that has given AZ to Biden as well, not all have called it yet.)

States left in play are Nevada, Pennsylvania, Gawgya, NC, and Michigan.

NV and MI are leaning Biden and those would seal it.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I missed that we had a concession speech.

Kanye has let go and accepted defeat.

We had one from Gideon, too. It still looked too close to call from where I look, but I'm sure her campaign had more complete information. Big news for the Senate mix, though. I can't see any reasonable way at this point that the Senate is not red. Mitch remains King.

So Mitch could just table every judicial nominee for at least the next two years? The amount of power invested in that position is absolutely ridiculous. And he takes advantage of every ounce of it. I have never seen someone on a bigger power trip. He just sounds like a despicable human being. Even on the rare occasion when he seems to do something decent, he has an agenda.

[CameronBornAndBred]

So Mitch could just table every judicial nominee for at least the next two years?

While possible, I truly believe if he did that, the GOP side of the Senate would turn into a slaughterhouse in 2022.
Of course, we may not get the opportunity to find out.

[CameronBornAndBred]

There goes Michigan. Biden only needs Nevada now.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

As much as most of me wants this resolved ASAP, part of me wants it to drag out a little longer as it must be absolute torture for Trump. All of the crazy voices in his head are screaming at each other, and he is likely firing people left and right. Blame it on Jared. Blame it on the Chinese for coronavirus. I'm not a Shakespeare expert but it sounds like a Shakespearean play.

Obviously not trying to jinx it. And I am still really unhappy with how the senate races turned out. And it seems like the house went pretty poorly.

[CameronBornAndBred]

As much as most of me wants this resolved ASAP, part of me wants it to drag out a little longer as it must be absolute torture for Trump. All of the crazy voices in his head are screaming at each other, and he is likely firing people left and right. Blame it on Jared. Blame it on the Chinese for coronavirus. I'm not a Shakespeare expert but it sounds like a Shakespearean play.

Obviously not trying to jinx it. And I am still really unhappy with how the senate races turned out. And it seems like the house went pretty poorly.

It's probably not a bad thing for the country overall, either. Ease into acceptance.

[CameronBornAndBred]

[ArkieDukie]

I will say, having Detrumpify installed made the election returns yesterday far more entertaining. I often refreshed the screen just to get a new round of names.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Will this be the day we know a winner? I've got a feeling it will be, but my nerves are shot. I thought Duke-UNC games were rough!

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Will this be the day we know a winner? I've got a feeling it will be, but my nerves are shot. I thought Duke-UNC games were rough!

I think that the remaining states will likely have margins requiring/enabling a recount, so this nightmare might not be officially over for a while.

I lived in PA for three months this summer as our Covid escape - really wishing my wife and I had been able to move our vote there. I have spent a lot of time in Pittsburgh and Philly (have pity on me) and everything they are saying is true - Philly is very blue and that has expanded out to its traditionally red suburbs (which are generally different counties), Pittsburgh (Allegheny County) is blue at its core but gets red very quickly, including parts of Allegheny County that one would never guess were in the same county as a fairly major city.