Duke vs. Memphis - Simulation / Preview

[chipslate]

As I discussed with some of you at the NCCU game, I've been using my NCAA Football Game (on Playstation 3) to simulate several football matchups and help me determine the best games to bet on. It's remarkable how accurate the available rosters are and I've made sure the depth charts are real and accurate as well. I thought it'd be an interesting 'experiment' to see how well the simulator does for the upcoming Duke games, so here's what the breakdown looks like for the coming away game at Memphis.



I simulated the game 20 different times using the same weather that weather.com is currently showing for this weekend: 92 degrees and clear / calm winds. Here were the results with Duke's score listed first:

1. 42-10 (W)
2. 31-24 (W) (OT)
3. 31-14 (W)
4. 23-14 (W)
5. 27-6 (W)
6. 17-24 (L)
7. 31-14 (W)
8. 21-28 (L) (OT)
9. 30-6 (W)
10. 24-27 (L) (OT)
11. 21-17 (W)
12. 47-21 (W)
13. 34-29 (W)
14. 24-28 (L)
15. 19-28 (L)
16. 43-21 (W)
17. 31-17 (W)
18. 37-10 (W)
19. 34-15 (W)
20. 26-14 (W)

What this all translates to is Duke winning 15 out of the 20 simulations or a 75% winning percentage for this game. Also, the rounded average score for all games was: Duke 30, Memphis 18.
Anyway, it'll be fun to see how accurate or inaccurate this is... the beauty of football is the unknown which is sure to upset the above formula. I look forward to seeing many of you in Section 21 this Saturday from the
UVA / Oregon game. LET'S GO DUKE!!!

[CameronBornAndBred]

If you are close enough to win money, I'm buying a PS3.

[lawgrad91]

He won $$ over the last weekend with his parlay!

Hopefully he won enough for another pimp cake.

[chipslate]

Yes, NCSU get's credit for helping with that, LG! And the pimp-cakes will continue until morale improves...

[chipslate]

The line started at Duke -6 and is now down to Duke -4, should be interesting!

[lawgrad91]

Looks like the last game was the closest to the real score.

Pimp cake all around!

[devildeac]

Looks like the last game was the closest to the real score.

Pimp cake all around!

Looks liked the first one would have worked nicely, too, if we hadn't shot several toes off with giveaways.

[chipslate]

That was such a great win for Duke given the loss of Boone... The Defense only gave up one score and we knew Connette could play given his past experience.

The simulation wasn't far off at all so I'll do a Georgia Tech preview sometime early this week... superstition won't let me stop now... and Duke covered the spread which means it's going to be raining pimp cakes!