Duke's defense will be better...Here's 3 reasons why

[The Football Fan]

1. Coaches - I get the line, it's more about the Jimmy's and the Joe's, than the X's and O's, but Duke fans should certainly get that coaching does make a difference. Coach K's untimely issues in 94-95 and the differential record would certainly be a prime example. Even in football coaching changes can make significant differences in a relatively short time period. Coach Cut's record a year after he took over the program at Duke is a great example. This past year I think the most important change was the hiring of Rick Petri. His record is lengthy at 30 years. He's been on winning teams throughout and many sites may have mentioned Warren Sapp or his record with Ole Miss and Coach Cutcliffe when Eli Manning was present. People may imply that anyone could have coached Warren Sapp or coached on teams with Eli Manning and been viewed as successful. So, it's not those individuals or teams I'm pointing at to say, this guy was the biggest recruit Coach Cut brought on board. Look at his record at Kentucky...who goes to Kentucky to be a star in football...In Lexington, Petri coached three future draft picks in Myron Pryor (6th round, New England, 2009), Jeremy Jarmon (3rd round, Washington, 2010) and Corey Peters (3rd round, Atlanta, 2010). That, my friends, is evidence that he can make a huge difference in the fate of Duke football. During that time at Kentucky (05-09) the Wildcats went to four consecutive bowl game appearances that included victories over Clemson (2006 Music City Bowl), Florida State (2007 Music City Bowl) and East Carolina (2009 Liberty Bowl).

My optimism doesn't stop there, Jim Knowles and Marion Hobby shared the coordinator position last year, however it should be noted that Hobby started the year out calling plays. I don't want this to be negative toward Hobby, because he brought a great background to the table, but realistically, we improved as a defense when Jim Knowles started working more of the play calling and we got away from the 3-4 defense. We were deep at linebacker, but apparently with limited talent. The players got experience with the defensive scheme last year and in the Spring got a chance to really refine and build on what was started last year. I can't find the source now, but it was reported that Marion Hobby was looking at a change in his status as the defensive coordinator. Coach Cut wasn't going to publicly throw someone under the bus that he cares about, but truthfully, I think Marion was still growing and learning in the D-coordinator role and Duke was/is in need of wins now (bowl status)... a change was needed. Jim is perfect for this role. Again, we'll now have someone in place who is well experienced in calling effective plays.

2. The players - Regardless of the coaches, it still does end with players making plays. Last year, we didn't have a D-line with significant talent or depth. I'm a big Charlie Hatcher promoter, but other than Charlie, we had youth and not much of it. I drank the kool-aid from Coach that our speed and athleticism at the LB position would make plays, but when teams start 2-3 yards ahead every play from a line push, it's hard to consistently stop teams. We had one experienced corner, but the other corners were redshirt freshman or converts without experience as corners. Youth is still going to be a factor for sure, but sheer numbers should help. Last year Duke had 5 ends and 2 nose guards. 7 D-Lineman for the whole year (8 if you include Tevin Hood). This year, there's 8 ends at their disposal, 2 tackles, and 3 NGs. You could also say 8 ends and 5 tackles, but either way...they have more ends at their disposal this year than linemen last year. That makes a difference in 3rd and 4th quarter settings. Another thing to consider is only one of those 7 weighed exactly 300lbs, 2 between 270-299, and the other 4 were under 255. This year, Duke has 3-300 plus guys, and 4 between 270-299.

I'll make one more point on the players. Aside from A. Kromah, several big plays were made by redshirt freshman or freshman. Cockrell made some interceptions. Brown had some big plays and a nose for the ball. Campbell got a fumble against tech and took it for a 90 some yard TD. It's not like these guys were completely ineffective...they showed flashes. We're solid up the middle with Hatcher and Daniels...I'm not suggesting the Defense is going to be leading the league, but they'll be much better against the run and the pass.

3. The offense - Someone may be saying...but this is a thread about the defense. It is, but the offense can make a big impact on the effectiveness of a defense. Last year Duke was +11 in turnovers. That by itself hurts a defense. Not having a running game affects your defense because it puts them on the field more often and with less rest...see post above for issues on depth. Phil Steele has a section in his book/magazine on the less fortunate and how those teams frequently reap significant gains in wins the following year. Duke could be front in center there. Because this more of a defense review, I won't laud the offensive details, but suffice it to say, I expect the running game to have another year of improvement. The O-line has depth at each position and that depth has some experience. The running back stable seems stocked and ready. Again, I'm not suggesting they'll be the best in the league, but another year of ground game gains and a better turnover margin and Duke will go bowling.

Duke just needs marginal gains in the running game, run defense, and a neutral turnover margin and they'll get the six wins. There's more good reasons to believe those gains will happen than that they won't.

No kool aid...it's just they way I see it. That doesn't mean it will happen, but the probability looks good.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Excellent post. I'll respond with more thoughts when I have time, but totally agree on the coaches. I was extremely happy to see the change. I'm sure Coach Hobby is a great guy, but his play calling was frustrating. I'm really looking forward to seeing what Coach Petri brings to the table.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

I agree regarding the importance of hiring of Coach Petri. I think Coach Cutcliffe did the best he could once Mike MacIntyre left for the head coach's job at San Jose State, but when Marion moved on, it opened up the possibility to bring somebody special and move some others around on staff.

In terms of players, bigger, better, faster are the descriptors. Even though he's listed on offense, I mention Laken Tomlinson as one I'm eager to see out there on the field. He's got size and brains plus an excellent work ethic.

We may be seeing some real talent at the linebacker position begin to make a difference in sacks and the like. There will be two Brown brothers on the team this season. The younger one is even bigger than his brother.

That's all I can say quickly before I head to an appointment. I can't wait for this season to kick off!

[devildeac]

1. Coaches - I get the line, it's more about the Jimmy's and the Joe's, than the X's and O's, but Duke fans should certainly get that coaching does make a difference. Coach K's untimely issues in 94-95 and the differential record would certainly be a prime example. Even in football coaching changes can make significant differences in a relatively short time period. Coach Cut's record a year after he took over the program at Duke is a great example. This past year I think the most important change was the hiring of Rick Petri. His record is lengthy at 30 years. He's been on winning teams throughout and many sites may have mentioned Warren Sapp or his record with Ole Miss and Coach Cutcliffe when Eli Manning was present. People may imply that anyone could have coached Warren Sapp or coached on teams with Eli Manning and been viewed as successful. So, it's not those individuals or teams I'm pointing at to say, this guy was the biggest recruit Coach Cut brought on board. Look at his record at Kentucky...who goes to Kentucky to be a star in football...In Lexington, Petri coached three future draft picks in Myron Pryor (6th round, New England, 2009), Jeremy Jarmon (3rd round, Washington, 2010) and Corey Peters (3rd round, Atlanta, 2010). That, my friends, is evidence that he can make a huge difference in the fate of Duke football. During that time at Kentucky (05-09) the Wildcats went to four consecutive bowl game appearances that included victories over Clemson (2006 Music City Bowl), Florida State (2007 Music City Bowl) and East Carolina (2009 Liberty Bowl).

My optimism doesn't stop there, Jim Knowles and Marion Hobby shared the coordinator position last year, however it should be noted that Hobby started the year out calling plays. I don't want this to be negative toward Hobby, because he brought a great background to the table, but realistically, we improved as a defense when Jim Knowles started working more of the play calling and we got away from the 3-4 defense. We were deep at linebacker, but apparently with limited talent. The players got experience with the defensive scheme last year and in the Spring got a chance to really refine and build on what was started last year. I can't find the source now, but it was reported that Marion Hobby was looking at a change in his status as the defensive coordinator. Coach Cut wasn't going to publicly throw someone under the bus that he cares about, but truthfully, I think Marion was still growing and learning in the D-coordinator role and Duke was/is in need of wins now (bowl status)... a change was needed. Jim is perfect for this role. Again, we'll now have someone in place who is well experienced in calling effective plays.

2. The players - Regardless of the coaches, it still does end with players making plays. Last year, we didn't have a D-line with significant talent or depth. I'm a big Charlie Hatcher promoter, but other than Charlie, we had youth and not much of it. I drank the kool-aid from Coach that our speed and athleticism at the LB position would make plays, but when teams start 2-3 yards ahead every play from a line push, it's hard to consistently stop teams. We had one experienced corner, but the other corners were redshirt freshman or converts without experience as corners. Youth is still going to be a factor for sure, but sheer numbers should help. Last year Duke had 5 ends and 2 nose guards. 7 D-Lineman for the whole year (8 if you include Tevin Hood). This year, there's 8 ends at their disposal, 2 tackles, and 3 NGs. You could also say 8 ends and 5 tackles, but either way...they have more ends at their disposal this year than linemen last year. That makes a difference in 3rd and 4th quarter settings. Another thing to consider is only one of those 7 weighed exactly 300lbs, 2 between 270-299, and the other 4 were under 255. This year, Duke has 3-300 plus guys, and 4 between 270-299.

I'll make one more point on the players. Aside from A. Kromah, several big plays were made by redshirt freshman or freshman. Cockrell made some interceptions. Brown had some big plays and a nose for the ball. Campbell got a fumble against tech and took it for a 90 some yard TD. It's not like these guys were completely ineffective...they showed flashes. We're solid up the middle with Hatcher and Daniels...I'm not suggesting the Defense is going to be leading the league, but they'll be much better against the run and the pass.

3. The offense - Someone may be saying...but this is a thread about the defense. It is, but the offense can make a big impact on the effectiveness of a defense. Last year Duke was +11 in turnovers. That by itself hurts a defense. Not having a running game affects your defense because it puts them on the field more often and with less rest...see post above for issues on depth. Phil Steele has a section in his book/magazine on the less fortunate and how those teams frequently reap significant gains in wins the following year. Duke could be front in center there. Because this more of a defense review, I won't laud the offensive details, but suffice it to say, I expect the running game to have another year of improvement. The O-line has depth at each position and that depth has some experience. The running back stable seems stocked and ready. Again, I'm not suggesting they'll be the best in the league, but another year of ground game gains and a better turnover margin and Duke will go bowling.

Duke just needs marginal gains in the running game, run defense, and a neutral turnover margin and they'll get the six wins. There's more good reasons to believe those gains will happen than that they won't.

No kool aid...it's just they way I see it. That doesn't mean it will happen, but the probability looks good.

[Bob Green]

1. Coaches -

2. The players -

3. The offense -

Duke just needs marginal gains in the running game, run defense, and a neutral turnover margin and they'll get the six wins. There's more good reasons to believe those gains will happen than that they won't.

No kool aid...it's just they way I see it. That doesn't mean it will happen, but the probability looks good.

Thanks for the detailed post. I agree with most of what you say as the defense doesn't need to dominate they need to make a key stop or two and create more turnovers than last year. Your point about the offense helping the defense is important. Coach Cutcliffe stated in an interview at Pinehurst that he desired to see ~80 offensive plays and ~60 defensive plays per game. The offense must execute sustained drives and limit turnovers.

Our offense has the potential to be the best in the ACC. If the defense and special teams are improved over last season, we should be able to make some noise.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Our offense has the potential to be the best in the ACC.

I know this is a defense thread..but that point right there is both scary and fun to think about, and also very true. Much will depend on our running game; if it works, we are going to keep defenses guessing. If the guys on the other side of the line aren't expecting a pass every play, or don't know what to expect when Connette is in, we will do some damage.

[devildeac]

Our offense has the potential to be the best in the ACC.

I know this is a defense thread..but that point right there is both scary and fun to think about, and also very true. Much will depend on our running game; if it works, we are going to keep defenses guessing. If the guys on the other side of the line aren't expecting a pass every play, or don't know what to expect when Connette is in, we will do some damage.

WTH? Even I know what to expect when Connette is in.



(But I'll bet Cut changes that a bit this year. )

[Bob Green]

Here is a video clip interview of Patrick from Blue Devil Nation interviewing defensive coordinator Jim Knowles followed by my explanation of the 4-2-5 defense:

http://bluedevilnation.net/2011/08/jim- ... media-day/

The article contains links to informative You Tube clips (a coach, a whiteboard and squiggly lines) and other articles, which explain "eight men in the box" "Cover 3 and Cover 2" and blitz concepts...

[RSharpe54]

I agree regarding the importance of hiring of Coach Petri. I think Coach Cutcliffe did the best he could once Mike MacIntyre left for the head coach's job at San Jose State, but when Marion moved on, it opened up the possibility to bring somebody special and move some others around on staff.

In terms of players, bigger, better, faster are the descriptors. Even though he's listed on offense, I mention Laken Tomlinson as one I'm eager to see out there on the field. He's got size and brains plus an excellent work ethic.

We may be seeing some real talent at the linebacker position begin to make a difference in sacks and the like. There will be two Brown brothers on the team this season. The younger one is even bigger than his brother.

That's all I can say quickly before I head to an appointment. I can't wait for this season to kick off!

I agree with you about Laken Tomlinson, he will really help Duke's Running Game improve from an offensive standpoint!

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

I agree regarding the importance of hiring of Coach Petri. I think Coach Cutcliffe did the best he could once Mike MacIntyre left for the head coach's job at San Jose State, but when Marion moved on, it opened up the possibility to bring somebody special and move some others around on staff.

In terms of players, bigger, better, faster are the descriptors. Even though he's listed on offense, I mention Laken Tomlinson as one I'm eager to see out there on the field. He's got size and brains plus an excellent work ethic.

We may be seeing some real talent at the linebacker position begin to make a difference in sacks and the like. There will be two Brown brothers on the team this season. The younger one is even bigger than his brother.

That's all I can say quickly before I head to an appointment. I can't wait for this season to kick off!

I agree with you about Laken Tomlinson, he will really help Duke's Running Game improve from an offensive standpoint!

Add to what we already know about Laken.... the injury suffered by Brian Moore is opening up a hole in the line. How that situation is addressed will likely mean a chain reaction of possibilities and opportunities. I look for Laken to open up a hole that results in a touchdown..... more than once this season.

Yes, I know the thread is about defense, but it's hard to ignore talent no matter which side of the ball it's on.

[RSharpe54]

The key for us Defensively will be several things I think. One, we have to generate pressure on the opposition's quarterback, not allowing ample time for a quarterback to sit back and throw the football all day long. It puts pressure on our secondary to make plays and basically leaves them hanging out to dry! Two, we have to have consistency at the Linebacker position at all times in the 4-2-5 defensive scheme meaning whoever the linebacker is in the game has got to be aggressive in the pass rush and in shuting down a teams ability to run the football! Three, get off the field defensively without wearing are defense down or out! Last season so many times wether it was 3rd and 9 or 3rd and 13 or 3rd and 4 we had problems making stops and getting are defense off the field. Last, we need to force more turnovers we didn't force alot last season on defense and that needs to happen more this year!

[RSharpe54]

Oh yes....I agree Devil in the Blue Dress its hard to ignore the talent no matter which side of the football it is on, and I'm excited about Laken Tomlinson and the possibilites in our running game. I feel sure he will be opening holes all year long for runningbacks to score touchdowns hopefully!

[The Football Fan]

I like to be accountable for my predictions...so here's a quick review.

1. coaches- Rick Petri did improve the performance of his group. The line increased their sack total 40% from the previous year going from 12 to 17 sacks. This probably would've been much better had Kenny Anunike not been crippled very early in the season. He accounted for 4 sacks of the total and was out after the 3rd game (I think). No one else got more than two. The rushing yards allowed dropped 13% (331 yards), while the passing defense barely budged, but actually increased from 2902 to 2937. Considering we played more option running attacks in 2010, it may or may not have been that much better. Still, our points allowed also dropped 12% to 374. Unexpectedly, this year seemed to be the worse one yet under Cutcliffe for offensive play calling. I thought we gift wrapped a few games for the opponent.
2. players - I expected more big plays from Hatcher. A few more interceptions from Cockrell. We were a bigger line and as stated above our stats did improve...marginally as expected.
3. offense - Here's where my predictions turned ugly. I thought the offense would be more efficient and gain more yards on the ground. I expected significantly fewer turnovers. We did drop our INTs and as a result our turnover margin improved, however we rushed for much less than the year before. When you only gain 1520 yards on the ground for the year, you generally assume you'll go up with almost everyone back...but instead we dropped 26% to 1129. Scott being out for several games hurt, Connette was sidelined early, and Snead's absence all season probably hurt too, but then, playing from behind every game was probably the biggest factor. Or we could possibly point at injuries to the O-line for the woeful drop in rushing. Either way, it was disappointing. From a psych standpoint, I think missing field goals killed us. Red zone efficiency was awful and that destroyed my prediction for the defense and the team as a whole.

Your thoughts...
1. What did I miss?
2. Will the kicking game improve next year? We have some new recruits here, does Ross start next year or do they redshirt? It's possible it will improve...it's hard to get much worse.
3. Does the redzone efficiency get any better next year? We have that new indoor facility to work in over the winter, but sometimes our issues seemed play call related...hopefully the offensive play calling issues won't return.

[CameronBornAndBred]

We did drop our INTs and as a result our turnover margin improved, however we rushed for much less than the year before. When you only gain 1520 yards on the ground for the year, you generally assume you'll go up with almost everyone back...but instead we dropped 26% to 1129.

I knew it was bad, but I didn't realize we actually regressed...that's stunning. And to make it worse, Cutcliffe and Co. said straight up that to win they were going to have to run the ball and that they had put in work on it. Uggghh. When I get home I'm going to take some time to digest the rest of your post and respond, but you've got some great stuff there.

[devildeac]

I like to be accountable for my predictions...so here's a quick review.

1. coaches- Rick Petri did improve the performance of his group. The line increased their sack total 40% from the previous year going from 12 to 17 sacks. This probably would've been much better had Kenny Anunike not been crippled very early in the season. He accounted for 4 sacks of the total and was out after the 3rd game (I think). No one else got more than two. The rushing yards allowed dropped 13% (331 yards), while the passing defense barely budged, but actually increased from 2902 to 2937. Considering we played more option running attacks in 2010, it may or may not have been that much better. Still, our points allowed also dropped 12% to 374. Unexpectedly, this year seemed to be the worse one yet under Cutcliffe for offensive play calling. I thought we gift wrapped a few games for the opponent.
2. players - I expected more big plays from Hatcher. A few more interceptions from Cockrell. We were a bigger line and as stated above our stats did improve...marginally as expected.
3. offense - Here's where my predictions turned ugly. I thought the offense would be more efficient and gain more yards on the ground. I expected significantly fewer turnovers. We did drop our INTs and as a result our turnover margin improved, however we rushed for much less than the year before. When you only gain 1520 yards on the ground for the year, you generally assume you'll go up with almost everyone back...but instead we dropped 26% to 1129. Scott being out for several games hurt, Connette was sidelined early, and Snead's absence all season probably hurt too, but then, playing from behind every game was probably the biggest factor. Or we could possibly point at injuries to the O-line for the woeful drop in rushing. Either way, it was disappointing. From a psych standpoint, I think missing field goals killed us. Red zone efficiency was awful and that destroyed my prediction for the defense and the team as a whole.

Your thoughts...
1. What did I miss?
2. Will the kicking game improve next year? We have some new recruits here, does Ross start next year or do they redshirt? It's possible it will improve...it's hard to get much worse.
3. Does the redzone efficiency get any better next year? We have that new indoor facility to work in over the winter, but sometimes our issues seemed play call related...hopefully the offensive play calling issues won't return.

Excellent stuff/analysis and props for coming back for accountability. Look forward to what you'll post after spring practice/game. Or sooner. Perhaps after national signing day in February?