2011 schedule discussion - How do we achieve six wins?

[Bob Green]

The 2011 season includes five teams in the preseason Top 50: Stanford (5), Florida State (10), Virginia Tech (18), Miami (34) and UNC (47). So that means we have seven games against unranked teams. Can we win six and qualify for a bowl? Which of the ranked teams do we have the best chance of defeating? There are lots of topics to discuss over the spring and summer as we wait for the guys to tee up and kick-off the ball on Sept 3rd.

http://www.nationalchamps.net/2011/earlybird/index.htm

Sept 3: Richmond
Sept 10: Stanford
Sept 17: @ Boston College
Sept 24: Tulane
Oct 1: @ Florida International
Oct 15: Florida State
Oct 22: Wake Forest
Oct 29: Virginia Tech
Nov 5: @ Miami
Nov 12: @ Virginia
Nov 19: Georgia Tech
Nov 26: @ UNC

To get to six wins and qualify for a bowl game it is imperative we get off to a strong start in Sept. Moreover, we are going to have to win multiple games on the road this season. The games at Florida International and at Virginia are games we must win. A win at Boston College on Sept 17 would really help our cause. I really desire to see Duke beat Miami this year after sitting through that six turnover debacle in Wallace Wade last season.

I see our victories being somewhere in the range of four to eight. Richmond, Tulane, Wake Forest and @Virginia are wins. @Boston College, @Florida International, @ Miami and Georgia Tech are possible wins. Winning six games and qualifying for a bowl game is an achievable goal, which will help recruiting which will help the program take the next step toward competing for the ACC Title.

Thoughts?

[devildeac]

The 2011 season includes five teams in the preseason Top 50: Stanford (5), Florida State (10), Virginia Tech (18), Miami (34) and UNC (47). So that means we have seven games against unranked teams. Can we win six and qualify for a bowl? Which of the ranked teams do we have the best chance of defeating? There are lots of topics to discuss over the spring and summer as we wait for the guys to tee up and kick-off the ball on Sept 3rd.

http://www.nationalchamps.net/2011/earlybird/index.htm

Sept 3: Richmond
Sept 10: Stanford
Sept 17: @ Boston College
Sept 24: Tulane
Oct 1: @ Florida International
Oct 15: Florida State
Oct 22: Wake Forest
Oct 29: Virginia Tech
Nov 5: @ Miami
Nov 12: @ Virginia
Nov 19: Georgia Tech
Nov 26: @ UNC

To get to six wins and qualify for a bowl game it is imperative we get off to a strong start in Sept. Moreover, we are going to have to win multiple games on the road this season. The games at Florida International and at Virginia are games we must win. A win at Boston College on Sept 17 would really help our cause. I really desire to see Duke beat Miami this year after sitting through that six turnover debacle in Wallace Wade last season.

I see our victories being somewhere in the range of four to eight. Richmond, Tulane, Wake Forest and @Virginia are wins. @Boston College, @Florida International, @ Miami and Georgia Tech are possible wins. Winning six games and qualifying for a bowl game is an achievable goal, which will help recruiting which will help the program take the next step toward competing for the ACC Title.

Thoughts?

Wide open for speculation here. I thought we would have 6 wins last year but murdered ourselves against WFU, Army (was that the 7 TO game?) and Miami (only 5 TO if my agry memory serves me properly). You could also count UMd also as we tossed an INT at or near the goal line late in the 4Q to hack that one away also, IIRC. Hell, we shoulda beat GT, too, giving up a 75 yard+ momentum changing bomb on 3rd and long as we have done all too frequently over that last decade or three.

I'll say we win 6 next year: Richmond, BC, Tulane, FIU, WFU and UVa. Depends on how long it takes us to recover from the thrashing Stanford lays on us at WW on 9/10. Also depends on whether we get a LOT more pressure on opposing QBs from the OL this year and if we have a couple or three RB who can help us average 100+ yards/game on the ground.

[captmojo]

BC away, on the aftermath of the Stanford game is gonna be tough. Will the team be sound enough to get this win on the road? This game is a bellweather watch. If a win can come here, it should spell a good record.

[Bob Green]

BC away, on the aftermath of the Stanford game is gonna be tough. Will the team be sound enough to get this win on the road? This game is a bellweather watch. If a win can come here, it should spell a good record.

If we lose at Boston College, but win the following week at home against Tulane, we would be 2-2 (I'm assuming a win over Richmond and a loss to Stanford) heading to Miami to play Florida International, which would be a must win game. We have to win at least two games on the road this season.

I thought we would have 6 wins last year but murdered ourselves against WFU, Army (was that the 7 TO game?) and Miami (only 5 TO if my angry memory serves me properly).

Actually, Miami was the seven turnover game: five interceptions and two lost fumbles.

[devildeac]

BC away, on the aftermath of the Stanford game is gonna be tough. Will the team be sound enough to get this win on the road? This game is a bellweather watch. If a win can come here, it should spell a good record.

If we lose at Boston College, but win the following week at home against Tulane, we would be 2-2 (I'm assuming a win over Richmond and a loss to Stanford) heading to Miami to play Florida International, which would be a must win game. We have to win at least two games on the road this season.

I thought we would have 6 wins last year but murdered ourselves against WFU, Army (was that the 7 TO game?) and Miami (only 5 TO if my angry memory serves me properly).

Actually, Miami was the seven turnover game: five interceptions and two lost fumbles.

Sheesh, Bob, we are both getting feeble of the mind . You first thought it was 6 TO and I thought it was only 5 and that we had 7 TO against Army. That makes Army the 5 TO game, which still sucked. There were some performances/sequences last year that were truly mind-bogglingly bad at times. Certainly, youth played a major role. CB&B, Ozzie and I were left and by some of the play-calling, too. Our youth may be our downfall again this year.

[wilson]

I hate to be this way, but I'll believe we're gonna win 6 when we win 6. I will never expect for it to happen. I've watched too much Duke football to believe in that.

[Bob Green]

I hate to be this way, but I'll believe we're gonna win 6 when we win 6. I will never expect for it to happen. I've watched too much Duke football to believe in that.

Yeah, nobody is going to disagree with you. We've all earned the right to be skeptical. This time last year I was ready to guarantee six wins and we ended up with three so...

[The Football Fan]

I freely admit to drinking the koolaid and over estimating our chances for 6 or more wins. I think you can make a case for 8-4 and 3-9. Somewhere in the middle is likely. Objectively, I would suggest they'll go 5-7.

I think Virginia will be a really tough out this year with the recruiting class they brought in for 2011.

There are 6 games that I think are really up in the air. I'm including Florida International. I think it really hinges on the first 4 games. If they can a competitive game against Stanford, I think they'll go into Boston College with a fighting chance, but a big blow out could set them back again. They can avoid the hangover by playing well.

At any point though, they could go on a roll and surprise people. I think Renefree and Scott, with the line we have, are going to win us a few games against tough opponents. They did it last year with Navy and Virginia. I know it took some great plays all over...like Varner's catch to set up Scott's run, but I think we have the pieces to get on a roll. It's not unrealistic to project 6-6.

[Bob Green]

I think Virginia will be a really tough out this year with the recruiting class they brought in for 2011.

We've beaten Virginia three straight years in the Coach Cutcliffe era so the Cavaliers will be motivated to break the streak. As several posters have commented here and in other forums, we are going to have to win some games where we are not favored to achieve our six wins goal and bowl eligibility. Even though I'm counting the Virginia game as a win, you are correct that it isn't a sure thing!

[CameronBornAndBred]

This is a pretty cool article posted today..very indepth and analytical. (It has lots of charts!)
The author doensn't see 6 wins this year, but does see it as an eventuality.

The Coaching Graveyard And The Duke Blue Devils

A great coach can win -- and potentially win big -- at a resume-killing job; a good one probably can't. David Cutcliffe likely isn't a great coach, but he's certainly a brave one. He left a seemingly comfortable post as Tennessee offensive coordinator to take over a program that has won seven or more games in a season three times since the Beatles came to America and has won either zero or one games five times since Y2K. And you know what? He's done a downright stellar job in his three years there.

http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/2 ... s-football

[Bob Green]

Game times announced for the first three games:

http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml? ... =205149385

Richmond: 7 pm
Stanford: 3:30 pm
Boston College: 12:30 pm

[CameronBornAndBred]

I guess this thread is as good as any to put this in.
Al Featherston asks five important questions as he looks to this year's season.

1. Can Duke upgrade the ACC’s worst defensive front?
2. Is Sean Renfree an all-star quarterback?
3. Will experience, and a better pass rush, improve the cornerback play?
4. Can Duke find the two linebackers it needs for its 4-2-5 scheme?
5. Will there finally be a running game?

Of course you will have to check out the article for the answers, but as always with Featherston's writing, it's well worth the read.
http://www.accsports.com/articles/20110 ... s-duke.php

[Very Duke Blue]

I guess this thread is as good as any to put this in.
Al Featherston asks five important questions as he looks to this year's season.

1. Can Duke upgrade the ACC’s worst defensive front?
2. Is Sean Renfree an all-star quarterback?
3. Will experience, and a better pass rush, improve the cornerback play?
4. Can Duke find the two linebackers it needs for its 4-2-5 scheme?
5. Will there finally be a running game?

Of course you will have to check out the article for the answers, but as always with Featherston's writing, it's well worth the read.
http://www.accsports.com/articles/20110 ... s-duke.php

Thanks for posting Al's article. After reading it, I will still hope and try to stay positive.

[RSharpe54]

I believe we will beat Richmond finally, but I also think we will win 7 games as I said before! Tulane, Wake Forest, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Florida International, and I think this is the year the Victory Bell comes home to Durham, NC we will beat UNC to top 7 wins. The important thing here is that we are 3-3 or at least 4-3 after the first half of the year that'll make a huge impact I think! Maybe we will score the Military Bowl or the Independence Bowl either way a Bowl game wherever it is sounds exciting!

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

I believe we will beat Richmond finally, but I also think we will win 7 games as I said before! Tulane, Wake Forest, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Florida International, and I think this is the year the Victory Bell comes home to Durham, NC we will beat UNC to top 7 wins. The important thing here is that we are 3-3 or at least 4-3 after the first half of the year that'll make a huge impact I think! Maybe we will score the Military Bowl or the Independence Bowl either way a Bowl game wherever it is sounds exciting!

Do you think that State will beat Carolina again? There's quite streak going between them!

[RSharpe54]

I guess this thread is as good as any to put this in.
Al Featherston asks five important questions as he looks to this year's season.

1. Can Duke upgrade the ACC’s worst defensive front?
2. Is Sean Renfree an all-star quarterback?
3. Will experience, and a better pass rush, improve the cornerback play?
4. Can Duke find the two linebackers it needs for its 4-2-5 scheme?
5. Will there finally be a running game?

Of course you will have to check out the article for the answers, but as always with Featherston's writing, it's well worth the read.
http://www.accsports.com/articles/20110 ... s-duke.php

Thanks for posting Al's article. After reading it, I will still hope and try to stay positive.

I totally agree with you Duke Blue, but Al Featherston on ACC Sports Journal was saying too that if Duke is going to run the 4-2-5 scheme they better have a durable Linebacker on the field that can make plays defensively, consistency is vital for Duke on Defense this year!

[RSharpe54]

I believe we will beat Richmond finally, but I also think we will win 7 games as I said before! Tulane, Wake Forest, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Florida International, and I think this is the year the Victory Bell comes home to Durham, NC we will beat UNC to top 7 wins. The important thing here is that we are 3-3 or at least 4-3 after the first half of the year that'll make a huge impact I think! Maybe we will score the Military Bowl or the Independence Bowl either way a Bowl game wherever it is sounds exciting!

Do you think that State will beat Carolina again? There's quite streak going between them!

I was just thinking about that Devil in the Blue Dress. Yeah, I believe N.C. State has their number for some reason and with the game being at N.C. State too I'll go with the home team! This will be the first time since 2003 that I believe UNC loses to both N.C. State and Duke to finish the year!

[RSharpe54]

N.C. State 32

UNC 27


Duke 26

UNC 24

The Victory Bell is coming back to Durham I think!

[RSharpe54]

The Running Game will heavly depend on what Laken Tomlinson and Takoby Coalfeild are able to do across the offensive line this yearalong with Kyle Hill those guys will assist in helping Duke finally find the running game it needs to be more consistent on offense!

[RSharpe54]

This is a pretty cool article posted today..very indepth and analytical. (It has lots of charts!)
The author doensn't see 6 wins this year, but does see it as an eventuality.

The Coaching Graveyard And The Duke Blue Devils

A great coach can win -- and potentially win big -- at a resume-killing job; a good one probably can't. David Cutcliffe likely isn't a great coach, but he's certainly a brave one. He left a seemingly comfortable post as Tennessee offensive coordinator to take over a program that has won seven or more games in a season three times since the Beatles came to America and has won either zero or one games five times since Y2K. And you know what? He's done a downright stellar job in his three years there.

http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/2 ... s-football

That was a good article Cameron Born and Bred! First off; we cannot start out another year by losing to Richmond. In two meetings between 2006 and 2009 we have been outscored by Richmond 37-16 and that can't happen this year because it really cost us in 2009! I believe that Cutcliffe has Duke on the right track for a Bowl bid in the future. Carl Franks was the guy that I thought would do it after about 2 years, but that 2001 and 2002 season took a lot of him and his team! Ted Roof was probably a better Defensive Coordinator then head football coach the 0-12 season in 2006 was rough I keep going back to the UNC game when Joe Surgan missed that extra point and the interception that Thad Lewis threw against Miami in that 15-20 loss. We really should've beaten Wake Forest at there place, but had a field goal blocked in the final seconds! Fred Goldsmith was okay he won in 1994 with a team left over from when Barry Wilson was there between 1990 and 1993 by 1996....and trust me on this one I was never so glad to see basketball season come in November that 0-11 season was brutal. After the 64-27 loss to Navy I knew we weren't going to win a game all year! I would much rather be in the position were in now then lets say a couple of years ago say 2006 or 2007 the 3-9 season was an experience to all of us who have been attending games as well as the players on the team, now we have to put together not just a 1st half, but more importantly the 1st and 2nd half to get to where we need to get to and that is Bowl Eligibilty! On a final note man....if we don't go to a bowl game I would at least like to beat Wake at home and UNC at there place!